Alarming numbers of young Kiwis are heading abroad – will they ever come home? - Editorial

The latest migration data has some concerning trends. Photo / Rita Ox, Unsplash

Editorial

THREE KEY FACTS

• A record 72,000 New Zealanders left last year, with 38% aged 18 to 30.
• There is concern over those aged 25 to 46 leaving for better career prospects.
• Westpac forecasts a net inflow of 15,000 people in 2025, with migration risks becoming ‘more two-sided’.

The latest brain-drain stats this week showing a record Kiwi exodus will be causing consternation on the Beehive’s upper floors.

The fact that young people aged 18 to 30 made up 38% of the 72,000 New Zealanders departing our shores last year should not be the major headache though.

For generations, some of our brightest young things have packed up post-study or apprenticeship for the great Kiwi OE (overseas experience).

And while there was always a portion who never came home, and made careers and lives abroad, most would eventually return to the fresh, open spaces and opportunities of Aotearoa.

Overseas experience was always thought to be a good thing – young people spreading their wings, seeing the world, adding to their knowledge and skillsets and bringing their gains back here to continue their careers, start businesses, and bring up their families.

But they aren’t the biggest concern, as pointed out by Herald business editor-at-large Liam Dann.

He noted an older cohort leaving for overseas, with record levels of people 25 to 46 seeking new lives abroad. The chances of that group returning must be lower.

“They are leaving for better career prospects,” Dann wrote.

“Losing those aged 25-46 is also more worrying from a Crown revenue perspective. They earn more and pay more taxes.”

Ensuring New Zealand is still a good place to live – and raise a family – is critical to luring those people back home one day.

Mortgage rates continuing to gradually return to reasonable levels will help, as will a growing economy.

The manufacturing and service sectors have inched into growth territory while tourism – always a mainstay of our economy – has been slow to bounce back.

But the post-Covid 19 growth is painstakingly slow and you can hardly blame Kiwis for looking further afield to get ahead.

Headlines of Kiwis jumping ship to Australia, hunting higher wages amid our cost-of-living crisis, have dominated over the past 12 months but things appear to be slowing down across the Tasman too.

Westpac forecasts a net inflow of 15,000 people to New Zealand in 2025, and doubling next year.

The risks around net migration are now looking “more two-sided”, says Westpac senior economist Michael Gordon.

“On the one hand, relatively weaker job prospects here compared to Australia could continue to support outflows, while on the other hand, government policy is starting to turn back towards attracting skilled migrants,” Gordon says.

One just hopes that the powerful draw of home remains – and that New Zealand is still seen as the perfect corner of the world to eventually come home and settle down.