It is not a surprise that we are here. Global carbon emissions are nearly 60 per cent higher today than in 1990. Although most of this growth is due to the developing world which had few expectations of restraint, in the developed world, many countries have done little of substance in the last two decades. New Zealand's total greenhouse gas emissions have increased 21 per cent since 1990.
If we all continue this way, temperatures on Earth will probably rise by up to 5C by 2100. That would mean the Earth warming more than it has since the end of the last Ice Age.
No one wants this. For the first time, politicians everywhere are waking up to this unprecedented inter-generational crisis. Nations representing nearly 90 per cent of the global human-caused greenhouse gas emissions have made pledges of what they are willing to reduce their outputs by.
The European Union will cut its emissions by 40 per cent compared to 1990 levels. The starting point of 1990 is significant, as that is when all international obligations began in this area.
Other countries prefer to adopt more convenient start dates from which reductions can be marked from.
The United States will cut its emissions by about 27 per cent compared with 2005, by 2025. Likewise, New Zealand has pledged to reduce emissions to 30 per cent below the level of 2005, by the year 2030. This equates to an 11 per cent cut below 1990 levels for us.
Critically, and the crucible by which the political will can be achieved to make a comprehensive agreement, the developing world has now, also, accepted the need to control their emissions.
Brazil had pledged to reduce its emissions by 43 per cent by 2030 compared to 2005. China has stated that its emissions will peak by 2030, whilst India is seeking to reduce its emission intensity by about 34 per cent by 2030.
The good news is that when all is averaged out, the new pledges should significantly reduce the build-up of greenhouse gases, to a level of about 3C warmer by the year 2100. But that is 1C past the tipping point. This will be critical to the most vulnerable.
To give the planet a fighting chance not to go past the tipping point requires approximately double of what has already been pledged.
Accordingly, the first thing New Zealand must do at Paris is be prepared to be flexible on our target, and see it as our opening, not final, bid. For a country in which each citizen accounts for nearly double the emissions of a person in Britain, and more than seven times the amount of a person in India, fairness demands we cannot be laggards on the question of targets.
The second area New Zealand must be progressive is on the question of money. All of the pledges for Paris are conditional. The most significant condition of all for the developing world to participate is that there must be additional financial support.
The changes that will go to the heart of so many developing economies will not come cheap. By 2020, the cost will be US$100 billion ($152 billion) a year. As of this month, the fund in which this money is being held has raised $10.2 billion in pledges from 38 governments.
The United States has pledged $3 billion, at about $9.81 per person in America. Australia has pledged $187 million, at $7.96 per citizen. For us, the Government has pledged $2.56 million, or 57c for each Kiwi, to help solve the most critical environmental issue ever.
Al Gillespie is a professor of law at Waikato University.
