A chance to dry out before the next big storm

More rain is forecast for much of the country. Photo / Northern Advocate

Despite more rain warnings issued today, New Zealand is about to have a breather, before likely being walloped by another big rain storm.

Across Saturday the remnants of this week's big storm will flick one last blast across eastern areas of the South Island with heavy rain again around Otago.

Meanwhile, in the North Island, the fourth sub-tropical low in a matter of weeks prompted fresh rain warnings on Friday and is likely to generate heavy rain and gale warnings for Wellington and Southern Wairarapa on Sunday.

But a clearance is forming and the weekend looks to be fairly sunny and settled in the north and west of New Zealand.

For several weeks now a large high has blocked bitterly cold weather from moving up the country and this weekend that high will spread a weak ridge of high pressure into the eastern Tasman Sea. It means that from Auckland and Northland right down to Southland west of the main divides the weather should become quite sunny and calm. The only blemish will be gusty south easterlies along the West Coast, but they should also ease during Saturday.

There's the risk of the odd isolated shower, especially early on Saturday, but the weekend will be mainly dry for most of these regions.

But, as I just mentioned with those warnings above, not all will see a sunny start to the weekend - and certainly not warm. Saturday will be a write-off for Otago, Canterbury, Marlborough, Wellington, Wairarapa and probably Hawkes Bay and Gisborne with rain and strong, cold, south easterlies. Highs will be in the single digits or the weak double digits.

By Sunday that high will drift further east bringing even more settled weather to the west, and will ease conditions in central New Zealand - Wellington is likely to remain cold and showery, as will Christchurch.

But by Monday all, or at least most, of New Zealand should be under high air pressure. That means frosts for the South Island and possibly central and southern North Island but good drying out weather.

It will be needed, too - our weather data is showing what looks like a nasty depression forming in the Tasman Sea next week which, according to the current weather models, should bring severe gales and heavy rain to northern and western New Zealand between Tuesday and Thursday.

This fifth low in less than a month may be severe - but it may also be the last for a short while. The long range weather maps show large highs moving in at the end of next week and next weekend - possibly lasting for several days in the north and maybe allowing some wintry southerlies to arrive in Southland and other southern regions - good for ski fields. It's a long way out, but something to watch.