Auckland's main transport planning body is arguing for a $5 billion spending programme to double the number of people using buses, trains and ferries.
The Auckland Regional Transport Authority calculates its plans would almost pay for themselves by reducing the need to build new roads.
It says boosting public transport patronage from 52 million a year now to 100 million passenger trips by 2016 would save having to build 130km of arterial roads and motorway lanes.
That alone would be worth $3.8 billion, against a public transport development spend-up of $4.89 billion.
Added to the figure would be at least $200 million a year in saved time and productivity from reduced congestion and more efficient use of limited road space, particularly on Auckland's constrained central isthmus.
And that's without counting annual fuel savings of 52 million litres, or "quality of life" benefits such as from 175,000 fewer tonnes of greenhouse gases being spewed into the air each year.
Even motorists could expect to benefit, says the transport authority, from less stressful trips at a projected average peak speed of 37km/h in morning traffic peaks compared with just under 34km/h in today's congestion.
But the Auckland Regional Council subsidiary warns in its first 10-year passenger transport network masterplan, for which public submissions close tomorrow, that a threatened $1.4 billion funding deficit will leave it sadly short of the mark.
Patronage
Although the council says its provision of $1.6 billion out of $2.3 billion sought from it by the authority will still allow significant improvements to the present inadequate public transport system, patronage will grow to just 78 million trips a year.
That will give public transport a 9 per cent share of all travel by 2016, compared with 7 per cent now and with a fully funded target of 11 per cent envisaged in Auckland's new Regional Land Transport Strategy.
Even though the Government is paying for much of the new Northern Busway, and has budgeted $600 million over five years to upgrade the region's railway lines, the council's funding deficit will be doubled by the loss of matching state subsidies.
Trains delayed
Not only does rail electrification to optimise patronage growth on faster and quieter trains look unaffordable without Government support, but the transport authority will have to make do with refurbishing more second-hand diesel units while delaying increases to services.
There may not even be enough to run trains along a proposed $55 million to $70 million rail extension for 1.8km between Wiri and central Manukau, which the Government has agreed to part-fund over three years after vigorous lobbying by Manukau City.
Rapid transit
Most desired bus service improvements, even for booming new suburbs such as Flat Bush in Manukau and for connections to the $40 million-plus Waitakere civic centre and railway interchange due to open in August, will also be delayed past 2011.
That is because the transport authority is giving highest priority with the limited funds to developing the busway and railway corridors into what it calls a "rapid transit network".
Although Aucklanders snarled in traffic may struggle with the notion of rapid transit, the agency is adamant high-quality services through transport "spines" unencumbered by road congestion must first be established at the top of a hierarchy of solutions.
Longer busway
Much of the rapid transit network is already in place. The Government promises to finish duplicating the western rail line within three years and the two-lane busway is due to open early in 2008.
But the transport authority hopes to extend the busway from Constellation Drive to Orewa in some form within the 10-year plan, even if only by using motorway shoulders.
It also hopes to start work by 2016 on a central city rail loop, through a tunnel from Britomart station to Mt Eden via Albert St.
Beyond the immediate plan, the authority hopes eventually to extend the rapid transit network with rail connections from Southdown to Avondale and the airport.
It also envisages more busways, to carry commuters between Westgate and Albany and to provide an orbital link from central Manukau to Panmure through the otherwise ill-served suburbs of Botany Downs and Pakuranga.
Light rail
Authority chief planner Fergus Gammie suggests that busway could eventually be converted to light rail, using units which could also run on existing lines to complete the circuit back to Manukau or north to Auckland.
Next in the authority's hierarchy is what it calls a "quality transit network", mainly of bus services along existing roads but with their own priority lanes, and then a "local connector network" of services giving access to local centres and the other two networks.
Mr Gammie says that will entail taking some buses off long routes where they now compete with rail and putting them to work on feeder services.
Integrated ticketing
Passengers can expect to make at least one transfer on 30 per cent of trips by 2016, compared with 15 per cent now, heightening a need for improved transport interchange stations and for a single integrated ticket for use on every stage of a trip.
Coupled with that will be a rationalisation of the region into 10 public transport fare zones, with the option of a cheaper ticket for short distances between zones, compared with more than 100 fare "products" with which passengers are now faced.
The plan also provides for some improvements for ferry passengers.
Although the authority says Auckland has the components of a comprehensive public transport network, it acknowledges a considerable challenge in trying to build these into the world-class system it believes the region deserves.
HAVE YOUR SAY
Tomorrow is the last day for public submissions on the Auckland Regional Transport Authority's draft 10-year passenger transport network plan.
Submission forms can be downloaded from www.arta.co.nz.
For a hard copy ring 379-4422.
$5 billion 10-year plan to get Auckland moving
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