The winner is ... Prepare to be surprised

By EWAN MCDONALD

Down in Hollywood the tabloid headline writers like to call it "Star Wars." There might be 3182 trophies handed out in 332 separate ceremonies in La-La-Land every year, but tonight's is the big one.

Today's 72nd Academy Awards are billed as the closest, the hardest to pick since ... well, given the vagaries of the 5000 or so voters, the 71st.

But you can bet there'll be plenty of surprises and quite a few tears before bedtime from the moment that MC Billy Crystal sings, dances and wisecracks on to the Shrine Auditorium stage.

Actually, nerves have been jangling for some months - since the nominations were announced. The ordinary Joes who pay at the box office are still trying to understand how the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences continues to overlook Jim Carrey, who combined his comic and serious sides in Man on the Moon, the biopic of comedian Andy Kaufman.

Perhaps it got lost in the mail. Sorry, that was the ballot papers. Perhaps it was accidentally dropped in the trash. Sorry, that was the trophies.

So after scanning the Web, the tabloids, the tip sheets and reading the dregs of a Starbucks vanilla mocha with lite, here are some predictions:

Best Actor

The critics like: Well, Jim Carrey or Matt Damon, actually. But since neither was nominated it's a toss-up between Richard Farnsworth and our boy, Russell Crowe.

The punters like: Kevin Spacey, but only because Jim Carrey couldn't be with us tonight.

The buzz is: Denzel Washington coulda been the champeen of the world, but The Hurricane has been exposed as not enough "true" and too much "story." Denzel might sneak it because the Academy would like to reward his body of work and its reputation for being liberal, but don't be surprised to see Kevin Spacey back on the podium.

Best Actress

The critics like: Hilary Swank.

The punters like: Hilary Swank.

The buzz is: Annette Bening. She's Hollywood royalty (heck, hubby Warren is picking up a Lifetime Achievement Award and Hollywood lurrves a happy ending). She plays a Mom (heck, she's even pregnant). She doesn't play a girl who wants to be a boy.

Best Supporting Actor

The critics like: Jude Law.

The punters like: Haley Joel Osment.

The buzz is: Michael Caine could benefit from a sympathy vote for The Cider House Rules, but this one will likely go to the only nominee who's shorter than Tom Cruise.

Best Supporting Actress

The critics like: Chloe Sevigny, though Samantha Morton could sneak it. The academy has a soft spot for actresses playing mutes.

The punters like: Angelina Jolie (Girl, Interrupted) to put an Oscar on the mantlepiece alongside dad Jon Voight's.

The buzz is: This is the toughest call of the night, but don't be surprised if a real Aussie (not an imported one) lifts this one - Toni Collette, as Haley Joel's mum in the hugely popular The Sixth Sense.

Best Original Screenplay

The critics like: Topsy-Turvy.

The buzz is: American (yawn) Beauty.

Best Adapted Screenplay

The critics like: Election.

The buzz is: If Caine is unable to win, Cider House will rule here.

Best Director

The critics like: Sam Mendes.

The punters like: Sam Mendes.

The buzz is: Go figure.

Best Picture

The critics like: American Beauty, a rose-petal ahead of The Insider.

The punters like: American Beauty by a city block from The Sixth Sense.

The buzz is: Do we really have to spell it out?