Austen, she says, spent time at the earl's home in Saltram House in Plymouth during the period in which she wrote Pride and Prejudice at the turn of the 19th century. The earl's second wife, Francis, was also a very close friend of the author. At the time, the historian claims, it was widely believed in literary circles that Francis was, in fact, the author of Pride and Prejudice, which had originally been published anonymously.
Dr Law, 52, from Kenilworth, Warks, added that the physical similarities between the earl and the description of Mr Darcy are "obvious", with the former looking "very intense".
In the novel, Mr Darcy is introduced as drawing "the attention of the room by his fine, tall person, handsome features, noble mien". Dr Law admitted that she did not have the "concrete evidence" to prove her claim beyond doubt, but added: "There is a massive intriguing web around it.
"It is clear that Jane Austen had very close links with the family. She sent Francis one of the first editions of Emma - when she only had 12 printed.
"Jane Austen's brother Henry was also a university friend of the Earl of Morley. They were contemporaries and he then become a banker to his regiment and later the domestic chaplain to the Earl of Morley's family."
She added: "It has been fascinating and I have been longing to find that cast iron bit of evidence. But after spending so long on it, I am pretty convinced."
Dr Law said there was also evidence that Austen based other plots in her novels around the earl and his family.
Before he met Francis, he was involved in a sex scandal that led to divorce, which is thought to be behind a famous plot in Austen's Mansfield Park. He sued his first wife for adultery following her elopement with a family friend, after finding out he had three illegitimate sons by his married mistress, the book claims. Dr Law said: "The original adultery is generally believed to have been behind the adultery plot in Mansfield Park."
Other contenders for the position of the "real" Mr Darcy have included Thomas Lefroy, with whom Austen is said to have had a love affair in 1796, and Dr Samuel Blackall, a theology student and fellow of Emmanuel College, Cambridge, whom she met on holiday.
Experts have previously been sceptical of such claims, with little evidence to suggest the fictional Mr Darcy was based on a real person.
The book, Through the Keyhole: Sex, Scandal and the Secret Life of the Country House, is published by The History Press.