Slow walkers are heading for an early grave - study

Research suggests slow walkers may be heading for an early grave. Photo / 123RF

Speed on your feet predicts chance of dying in next five years better than whether you smoke, scientists behind mortality questionnaire discover.

Middle-aged people planning to slow down in later life may want to think again after scientists found that walking pace was a better predictor of early death than smoking.

A study looking at which lifestyle questions would accurately predict the risk of dying within five years found that slow walkers were at greater risk of death in the timescale than those who just smoked. The researchers believe it is because slow walking indicates serious underlying health conditions such as shortness of breath, heart problems, disability and general ill health.

From today people aged between 40 and 70 can answer a set of simple questions to gauge their health and find out their chance of making it to 2020.

The scientists who developed the test claim they do not even need to carry out a physical examination to accurately predict the risk of dying within the period. Instead, people are questioned about their walking speed, previous illnesses, marital status, financial difficulties and periods of stress such as bereavement.

To create the test, Professor Erik Ingelsson and Dr Andrea Ganna, from the Karolinska Institute in Sweden, analysed data collected between 2006 and 2010 from nearly half a million British adults aged between 40 and 70 years. They then worked out what health and lifestyle factors were the best indicators of short-term death.

Surprisingly, they found that self-reported health information was generally a stronger predictor of death than biological measurements, such as pulse rate and blood pressure. Walking pace was a stronger predictor of death risk in both men and women than smoking habits and other lifestyle factors, they report in The Lancet. They hope that it will help those people at risk to make lifestyle changes before it is too late.

"The fact that the score can be measured online in a brief questionnaire, without any need for lab tests or physical examination, is an exciting development," Dr Ganna said.

"We hope that our score might eventually enable doctors to quickly and easily identify their highest risk patients, although more research will be needed to determine whether it can be used in this way in a clinical setting. Of course, the score has a degree of uncertainty and shouldn't be seen as a deterministic prediction. For most people, a high risk of dying in the next five years can be reduced by increased physical activity, smoking cessation and a healthy diet."

Last year, Finnish scientists found that a simple blood test could predict the chance of death within five years by looking for biomarkers linked to cancer, heart disease and diabetes.

However this is the first test which does not need any biological information. Participants can calculate their five-year mortality risk as well as their 'Ubble Age' - the age at which the average mortality risk in the population is most similar to the estimated risk. Ubble stands for UK Longevity Explorer. Researchers say the test is 80 per cent accurate.

Some experts warned that the test could lead to panic among the worried well. Simon Thompson of the University of Cambridge said: "Five-year mortality is easier to predict than long-term morbidity, or quality of life and life expectancy, all of which are more important to individuals and to society."

The test can be taken at ubble.co.uk.