Oscar's fight club

It's going to be quite a scrap at this year's Oscars. Entertainment editor RUSSELL BAILLIE weighs up the heavyweight categories and takes a punt on who'll be the new title holders.

Let the battle begin - the Oscars this year have plenty of fight in them.

Consider the heavyweight division of best picture - there's our Russ unleashing hell, martial artists high-kicking across roofs and tree-tops, one woman's battle against a power company and for what constitutes acceptable office wear, an entire politico-legal war on drugs, and a French village up in arms over chocolate (no, we can't understand why the soft-centred Chocolat figures either, except it's the sort of Euro-flick Academy voters like - it's in English).

But in the hand-to-hand combat of the nominations, there's Eastern fantasy versus Western realism, ancient history versus contemporary issues.

In the acting categories there are poets versus painters versus philosophers versus politicians versus warriors. They contain a Puerto Rican playing a Mexican, a Spaniard playing a Cuban, a New Zealander playing an Italian, an American playing a reluctant Pacific Islander and an Australian playing the wildest Frenchman of all.

Likewise, this supposed celebration of all things Hollywood has only two Americans in the best director category - well one, actually: Steven Soderbergh, nominated twice.

All of which makes it an intriguingly unpredictable Oscar race and maybe one of those years where there'll be no clean sweep and every second winner will have film fans across the world shouting at their telly: "You've just got to be kidding!"

We predict a few antipodean expletives if, come the best actor announcement, "our" Russ is pipped by "their" Tom.

So who do we think might be taking moviedom's most significant accolade come Monday, NZ time? Here's the TimeOut form guide to the Academy Awards 2001 ...

Best Picture

Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon

Ang Lee's epic might levitate on its martial artistry but it's also got two of the best screen romances in recent memory among this year's contenders. It's certainly made enough money internationally to be considered something other than a subtitled cause celebre for the critics, too. Hopefully voters won't see Best Foreign Language Film as its only reward. Even if it doesn't win, it still is the best picture.

THE REST

Gladiator: Unless there's an unlikely tilt towards a Braveheart-like sweep, they may think this has already got its reward at the box office.

Erin Brockovich: Suffering from a possible split in votes for the efforts of director Steven Soderbergh (also the director of Traffic), and because it's so closely identified with its star, Julia Roberts - her likely best actress win will be seen as sufficient. But in with a chance.

Traffic: That Soderbergh split again, but if "important" rather than "fantastic" is this year's rule of thumb, this could be a dark horse.

Chocolat: The Academy voters just aren't that sweet-toothed. Or stupid. Are they?

Best Actress

Julia Roberts (Erin Brockovich)

The biggest female film star in the world finally makes a genuinely good movie. Do you think they're going to give the gong to anyone else? Her win will be the Hollywood feelgood moment of the awards.

THE REST

Joan Allen (The Contender): Having twice played bridesmaid in the supporting category, Allen reaches the top of the table but the film about murky Washington politics went largely unloved in the US.

Juliette Binoche (Chocolat): The French actress is a past winner in the supporting category for The English Patient but her Chocolat role makes her an unlikely candidate.

Ellen Burstyn (Requiem for a Dream): Currently to be seen in the re-release of The Exorcist, Burstyn's latest character in the dark drugs tale is the most extreme of this category but her nomination is effectively a mention in dispatches for the edgy film.

Laura Linney (You Can Count on Me): Previously best known as Jim Carrey's wife in The Truman Show, Linney breaks out of supporting-role mode in this acclaimed left-field flick but while she's the newest face, she too will have to smile sincerely when the winner's name is announced.

Best Actor

Russell Crowe (Gladiator)

Yes he's a parochial favourite but Crowe has a couple of other points in his favour in his head-to-head with Tom Hanks. For one, he's not up against anyone from Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon (to Oscar's eternal shame) and he was nominated last year for The Insider. Oh and he was bloody good in Gladiator. And the Academy isn't allergic to the occasional Antipodean triumph either.

THE REST

Tom Hanks (Cast Away): Yes, just because he's already won this award twice, that really shouldn't prevent another win for what is quite a (solo) performance. But the film itself is largely out of contention elsewhere and the Academy might blanch at being quite so predictable.

Ed Harris (Pollock): Harris' biopic of the modern artist is a long-cherished labour of love, but its realisation and the kudos for Harris are likely to be its greatest reward.

Geoffrey Rush (Quills): His third nomination in five years after winning for Shine, Rush's performance as the Marquis de Sade is wild, theatrical and frequently starkers, but this supposedly provocative film just hasn't had that much of a reaction.

Javier Bardem (Before Night Fails): A Pedro Almodovar film regular and star in his native Spain, Bardem's portrayal of gay Cuban poet Reinaldo Arenas can only be seen as a worthy rank outsider.

Best Director

Ang Lee (Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon)

We hope the lack of actor nominations for his wondrous film might indicate that the Academy plainly regards it as a work of director Lee's genius. The evidence of that is in how - despite the flying kicks, the yearning romance, the episodes that resemble a Western gone East - Lee never loses sight of his characters or their story.

THE REST

Steven Soderbergh (Traffic, Erin Brockovich): If the twice-nominated director sneaks through, let's hope it's for Traffic - his riveting, ambitious and multi-layered film about America's War on Drugs. Though Erin Brockovich is not to be sniffed at either.

Ridley Scott (Gladiator): Long thought of as a visual stylist with an unsteady hand on character or story, veteran British director Scott may fluke a win if the Gladiator chariot gets rolling. However, the mixed reception that his Silence of the Lambs sequel Hannibal has been getting might not help his chances.

Stephen Daldry (Billy Elliot): The Oscars have proved a mixed blessing for Daldry and his hit film - he's nominated for best director but Chocolat takes Billy's place in the line-up for best picture. While he's essentially been nominated for coaxing a great performance out of young Jamie Bell in the title role, Daldry has only a very slight chance.

Best Supporting Actress

Kate Hudson (Almost Famous)

The Oscars love an ingenue as winner, especially in this category, and Goldie Hawn's daughter playing loopy groupie Penny Lane helped make Almost Famous a (largely ignored) gem of a rock'n'roll movie.

THE REST

Judi Dench (Chocolat): The venerable English actress has won before in this category and in a movie - Shakespeare in Love - in which she had half the screen time but which was twice the film. As with Chocolat's other showings in the nominations, go figure.

Marcia Gay Harden (Pollock): Playing painter Lee Krasner to Ed Harris' Jackson Pollock, Harden could well benefit from the 11th-hour interest in the biopic of the artist

Frances McDormand (Almost Famous): Nominated for playing the loving mum of the teenage rock scribe in Almost Famous, previous best actress winner (for Fargo) McDormand may have to be content with seeing the prize going to her younger co-star.

Julie Walters (Billy Elliot): Nominated for her ballet teacher role, Walters may be this year's favourite Brit if the Almost Famous vote is split.

Best Supporting Actor

Benicio Del Toro (Traffic)

He's the only performance from Traffic's ensemble nominated and he's already won against first division Hanks and Crowe in the Screen Actors Guild awards. So what if his role as the last honest cop in Mexico wasn't in English? He's the coolest movie guy of the moment.

THE REST

Jeff Bridges (The Contender): Nominated four times with no wins, Bridges might be in for a long-service bonus prize. But playing the President of the United States comes with the problem of being just another actor in the Oval Office.

Willem Dafoe (Shadow of the Vampire): Willem Dafoe's portrayal of silent-era movie vampire Max Schreck might have a precedent in Martin Landau's award for playing Bela Lugosi in Ed Wood. But the movie itself is too cultish.

Albert Finney (Erin Brockovich): Well, Michael Caine, another veteran Brit, won in this category last year. But Finney's supporting role to Julia Roberts was just that - supporting and unshowy.

Joaquin Phoenix (Gladiator): Could the emperor himself get the thumbs-up? Only if there's a Gladiator groundswell.