Oscars 2001 - a Hollywood cliffhanger

LOS ANGELES - With only four days to go, this year's battle for the Oscars has turned into a suspense-filled Hollywood cliffhanger - the kind of thing you'd go to the movies to see.

With the lone exception of the presumably unstoppable Julia Roberts headed for a coronation, there seem to be no clear front-runners.

Nobody knows if the fiery chariots of "Gladiator" are powerful enough to crush Taiwan-born director Ang Lee's critically acclaimed collection of crouching tigers and hidden dragons or steamroll over the articulate, natty drug lords of Steven Soderbergh's "Traffic".

Nor does anyone know who will wind up with the Oscar for best actor - Tom Hanks for a record-breaking third time, Russell Crowe for a career-making first time or actors' actor Ed Harris for playing a loutish, possibly psychotic artist of genius in "Pollock," a role he spent 10 years bringing to the screen.

And in those categories alone - best picture and best actor - this year's race for the Oscars might turn out like last year's battle for the presidency: a close race until the very end when all hell breaks loose and the unexpected becomes history.

While there will be no hanging chads, demands for recounts, or late night conferences at the Supreme Court, the Oscars results spread across an estimated four hours of prime time television on Sunday could be historic in their own way.

They could end with the first non-English, subtitled movie in history being named best picture - Lee's "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon" - and it could also end with Hanks becoming the first actor to win three Academy Awards in the best actor category.

Or it could wind up with Hollywood splitting its highest honours a dozen different ways - maybe best director for Ang Lee, best film for "Gladiator," best foreign language film for "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon," making it the first Chinese language film to be so honoured.

There is precedence for a "Gladiator" victory, according to Time Magazine film critic Richard Schickel: it has a similar noble hero plot to "Braveheart," another Oscar winner, not to mention "Ben Hur".

The only person who seems to have a lock going into the Oscars is Roberts for best actress for her role as the feisty legal assistant in low-cut blouses in "Erin Brockovich," one of two movies directed by Steven Soderbergh that are up for top awards.

Roberts, the dominant female box office star at the moment, calls Soderbergh her personal "God" and credits him totally for giving her a major shot at a best actress Oscar.

Soderbergh, for his part, says he did one thing for Roberts that no other director has done: shoot her in natural light because he thought she looked so much better in person than on the screen where she was always artificially lit.

In a normal Oscar season, Soderbergh might have been considered a shoo-in for a gold statuette but experts think his chances have been drastically cut by having two pictures in contention - "Brockovich" and the drug drama "Traffic."

The last time a director had two films competing against each other was in 1938 and that director went home empty-handed.

A poll of 1,024 Americans by ABCNews.com showed a tight race between "Gladiator" and "Brockovich" as the public's choice for the best film Oscar with 31 percent opting for "Brockovich" and 28 percent giving a thumbs up to the Roman Empire epic. The three other movies - "Traffic," 'Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon" and 'Chocolat" - lagged way behind with only seven percent of votes.

But the public be damned - the experts say almost anything is up for grabs. "If ever there was a year for upsets, this would seem to be it," says one veteran Oscar observer who delights in privately handicapping the race.

Many call the best actor race the tightest in years - a battle between "Cast Away" Hanks and "Gladiator" Crowe, the New Zealand-born, Australian-raised actor who many thought should have won last year but didn't.

Hanks is a popular figure in the industry while Crowe, thought by many to be on the verge of a Clark Gable-like superstardom, evokes more mixed emotions.

"Russell Crowe seems to be in bad odour. He is perceived as a sort of arrogant kind of guy. These reputations are hard to shake - it may be that he said or did some things that were blown out of proportion," said Time critic Schickel, summing up comments heard with some frequency in recent days.

"Hanks, meanwhile, is a wonderful man .... He is everything he appears to be and a better actor than many people think. You never see any wheels turning," Schickel added.

But it is hard to tell who has the buzz, let alone the wheels turning for him. Crowe has mounted a charm offensive, showing up at all manner of events, humbled, honoured and happy to be in town - even if the FBI has warned him that he could be kidnapped.

Meanwhile the 5,700 voting members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences may be planning a surprise - Ed Harris whose film "Pollock" works well when watched on cassette.

"Ed Harris gives a wonderful performance. If you were just going on acting chops, he would get it," Schickel said.

Chops - and in one case a vampire's fangs - are also an issue in the best supporting actor and actress categories where every nominated performance appears to be choice.

The relatively unknown Benicio Del Toro, who won a Screen Actors Guild best actor's award for his performance as a Mexican drug cop in "Traffic," is up against some hard competition for an award some see as often being given for lifetime achievement.

The five-time Oscar-nominated Albert Finney is up for one for his role in "Brockovich" as are Willem Dafoe who plays a bloodsucker turned actor in "Shadow of a Vampire," Joaquin Phoenix for "Gladiator" and Jeff Bridges for "The Contender."

Vying for best supporting actress are Kate Hudson, the daughter of Oscar winner Goldie Hawn, and Frances McDormand, both for "Almost Famous," Julie Walters for "Billy Elliot," Judi Dench for "Chocolat" and Marcia Gay Harden for playing the wife in "Pollock".

- REUTERS