One last round of the Oscar guessing game

You can uncross your fingers now - the votes are in and the Oscar results have been tallied in secret and are sitting in a vault in Los Angeles somewhere. Who will take the glory at this year's most New Zealand-flavoured of Academy Awards has already been decided. But as we nervously await the results on Monday afternoon (New Zealand time), we thought we'd open one last round of the Oscar guessing game. The participants are the folk who have seen more of the contenders than most, a range of reviewers for the Herald and various other local print and broadcast outlets - so it's educated guessing.


Peter Calder, NZ Herald

BEST PICTURE

Will win: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King. Of course. Never mind the quality, feel the width.

Should win: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King. Of course. All of Peter Jackson's three films had their flaws, but they are a high-water mark in the medium.

Cruelly ignored: 25th Hour - the fact that Spike Lee's dazzling and evocative elegy to New York never even registered on the Oscar radar says plenty about the films the Academy members like.

BEST DIRECTOR

Will win: Peter Jackson. See above. They can't ignore him three times, can they? Can they?

Should win: Peter Jackson. See above. And above.

Cruelly ignored: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu. The brilliantly original director of 21 Grams and Amores Perros will stand on the podium one day.

BEST ACTOR

Will win: Bill Murray, Lost in Translation. Smart directors know that comics make the best serious actors.

Should win: Bill Murray. We always knew he had it in him.

Cruelly ignored: Ralph Fiennes, Spider. The film was too dark for the sensitive souls of the Academy, but it was the year's most actorly acting.

BEST ACTRESS

Will win: Diane Keaton (Something's Gotta Give) or Charlize Theron (Monster). Whether they go for a pretty woman with the courage to look ugly or an older woman with the courage to look older, sentiment will drive this pick.

Should win: Keisha Castle-Hughes. We're allowed to be sentimental too, aren't we? Aren't we?

Cruelly ignored: Toni Collette, Japanese Story. An intelligent actress of huge skill and sensitivity who has the bad luck not to be American.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Will win: Tim Robbins, Mystic River. They may jeer on Oscar night but the Academy thrills to a winner who will stand on the podium and have a crack at Dubya.

Should win: Tim Robbins. His drooping, round-shouldered shuffle was deeply moving.

Cruelly ignored: Andy Serkis, The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King. Yeah, sure he was computer-generated but the raw material was fantastic and his was the most heartfelt turn of a pretty wooden bunch.

Russell Baillie, NZ Herald

BEST PICTURE

Will win: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King. It seems to have the numbers - the first two movies as opening acts, the many pre-Oscar prizes and the US$1 billion box office against New Line's US$300 million gamble that was the initial budget for all three films. An artistic achievement and a Hollywood business triumph to boot.

Should win: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King. Because it's the best of the trilogy, one which hasn't just delivered three great movies, it has influenced big studio film-making since. That's whether it's revived the pure joy of experiencing a genuine epic on the big screen, or hastened-in the DVD age.

Cruelly ignored: American Splendor is a great film, but it seems Academy members mistook it for the straight-to-video sequel to American Beauty.

BEST DIRECTOR

Will win: Peter Jackson (The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King) but there might be pockets of sympathy for old trooper Clint Eastwood (Mystic River) and the daughter of an old trooper Sofia Coppola (Lost in Translation), though she's likely to be gonged for the best original screenplay.

Should win: Peter Jackson. Let's not grow hoarse singing his praises, but he was master and commander and he was on the far side of the world.

Cruelly ignored: Niki Caro for Whale Rider - but we would say that wouldn't we? And Jim Sheridan for the utterly lovely and autobiographical In America

BEST ACTOR

Will win: Sean Penn (Mystic River) is great and always has been.

Should win: Bill Murray (Lost in Translation) is hilarious and always has been. And that Lost in Translation without him would have been a pointless exercise.

Cruelly ignored: Paul Giamatti in American Splendor. Most actors are intimidated by playing a real-life character - he had to share screen time with the real Harvey Pekar.

BEST ACTRESS

Will win: Charlize Theron (Monster) for her chameleon act from cover model to the real-life serial killer Aileen Wournos who met her fate on Florida's death row. Though you do wonder how much of her homework was done by Nick Broomfield's two documentaries on the murderess.

Should win: Keisha Castle-Hughes because every time we think of her opening voice-over or that speech scene again we get really very ... sorry ... sniff ... that's okay ... I'll be all right in a minute.

Cruelly ignored: Uma Thurman in Kill Bill Vol 1. Because revenge is a dish best served in a Japanese restaurant full of evil henchmen about to lose their limbs to Uma's sword.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Will win: Renee Zellweger, if only out of guilt for not giving her anything for Chicago last year. And in Cold Mountain she at least tried not to look as pretty as her co-stars.

Should win: Anyone else really, though Marcia Gay Harden has already won in this category. Patricia Clarkson (Pieces of April) is always good, too.

Cruelly ignored: The wee Bolger sisters in In America.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Will win: Tim Robbins' Mystic River performance is natural Oscar bait and his acceptance speech is odds-on favourite to be this year's Michael Moore moment.

Should win: Ken Watanabe for The Last Samurai because he outshone that punk Cruise and didn't even make the film's poster, except maybe in Japan.

Cruelly ignored: Sean Astin in The Return of the King. By the end there he was acting for two. Likewise Andy Serkis as Gollum - a year splashing around in New Zealand rivers wearing a blue bodysuit and rasping like a sickly moggy and this is the thanks he gets?


Philip Matthews, NZ Listener

BEST PICTURE

Will win: Lord of the Rings: the Return of the King. So, how do you think they'll take the news in Wellington?

Should win: Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World - it's the high-minded action movie that Americans failed to appreciate.

Cruelly ignored: Cold Mountain, although the good news is that it keeps producer Harvey Weinstein off the stage.

BEST DIRECTOR

Will win: Peter Jackson, but you'd be stupid to put money on it.

Should win: Peter Weir for Master and Commander - this is his fifth nomination, and it's for the best film of those five.

Cruelly ignored: Anthony Minghella for Cold Mountain.

BEST ACTOR

Will win: Bill Murray for his wry, subtle work in Lost in Translation.

Should win: Murray.

Cruelly ignored: Paul Giamatti for his wry, subtle work in American Splendor.

BEST ACTRESS

Will win: We haven't seen Monster, but everyone loves Charlize Theron. She's this year's Hilary Swank.

Should win: Naomi Watts is pretty sensational in 21 Grams.

Cruelly ignored: Harvey and Anthony's mate Nicole.

SUPPORTING ACTOR

Will win: Tim Robbins for Mystic River, but only if Sean Penn loses. Mystic isn't worth two acting gongs.

Should win: We haven't seen The Cooler, but everyone loves Alec Baldwin. Otherwise, a heavy, haggard Benicio Del Toro gives great suffering in 21 Grams.

Cruelly ignored: Two witty performances: Eugene Levy in A Mighty Wind and Paul Bettany in Master and Commander.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Will win: Renee Zellweger. Her Granny Clampett routine was the worst thing in Cold Mountain but the Academy has decreed that it's Zellweger's turn - meaning they feel sorry they didn't give it to her last year.

Should win: Shohreh Aghdashloo is brilliant in House of Sand and Fog.

Cruelly ignored: Hope Davis in American Splendor.

Francesca Rudkin, Breakfast TV and CityMix Magazine

BEST PICTURE

Will win: Return of the King - You don't gather as many bookends and doorstops as Jackson has, then miss out on the big one.

BEST DIRECTOR

Will win: Jackson was given the nod by the American Directors Guild, and there is no doubt he deserves this award for his remarkable trilogy, but there's always the possibility of an upset. Great to see City of God nominated, but the main competition is probably the award-winning Lost in Translation.

BEST ACTRESS

Will win: Although I haven't seen Charlize Theron in Monster, any actress who piles on 11kg is bound to win the sympathy of the Academy. Probably the only person who can ruin her evening is Naomi Watts.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Will win: Haven't seen all these films, but Renee Zellweger is looking good. She, too, packs on the kgs for film roles, and is the only amusing element in Cold Mountain.

BEST ACTOR

Will win: I've had a crush on Sean Penn for many years now, so my decision here is biased. If he doesn't win, let's hope the Academy has a sense of humour and picks Bill Murray just to hear his acceptance speech.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Will win: This is tricky. Benicio Del Toro delivered a captivating performance in 21 Grams, and Ken Watanabe showed up Tom Cruise with substance and style in The Last Samurai, so either of these two is a possibility. Let's just hope the Academy doesn't fall for Tim Robbins' overly afflicted victim in Mystic River.

Steven Gray, Good Morning

BEST PICTURE

Will win: Return Of The King will win, in one of the weakest years in recent memory (rack off, Seabiscuit)

BEST DIRECTOR

Will win: Peter will

BEST ACTOR

Will win: Sean will win, Bill should win, and I'd love it if Johnny did win but at least Tom and Russ were ignored, in bad epic films.

BEST ACTRESS

Will win: As having not seen Monster it's hard to choose, but Keisha doesn't have a show.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Will win: Tim Robbins, for a silly performance, and the Academy will want to reward it.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Will win: Marcia Gay Harden should, as she is so good, but she won two years ago. Patricia Clarkson won't as no one has seen her film. Shoreh Aghdashloo has a crazy name, Holly Hunter was too honest in 13, so it'll go to the goofiest speech-giver, Renee Zellweger.

Rod Johns, Real Groove

BEST PICTURE

Will win: Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King. The Academy must recognise the magnitude and brilliance of Jackson's three-hour finale of the Tolkien trilogy, which eclipses the two previous LOTR films, both of which were underrated and somewhat ignored in previous Oscars.

Should win: Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King.

BEST DIRECTOR

Will win: Clint Eastwood (Mystic River). You can't beat City Hall - Eastwood has great respect within the Academy

Should win: Peter Jackson for Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King. This massive tour de force from Jackson was the best film of last year, but may suffer from an industry backlash against films made outside America and non-resident directors.

Wild card: Worthy nomination Sofia Coppola could provide an upset in this category, She has her father's connections, she is only the third woman to be nominated as Best Director, and the Academy is getting so PC.

BEST ACTOR

Will win: Sean Penn (Mystic River). The Academy should recognise this great, low-key performance from Penn whose consummate acting ability exceeds his Hollywood star image.

Should win: Sean Penn (Mystic River).

BEST ACTRESS

Will win: Charlize Theron (Monster). The combination of studio hype and Theron's Hollywood status will be hard to beat.

Should win: Samantha Morton (In America). Morton's perfect portrayal of a woman besieged by multiple demons will probably be too understated for recognition and she isn't American, but the Irish connection may help.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Will win: Benicio Del Torro (21 Grams). In a strong role, Del Torro has more dominant screen time than Djimon Hounsou (In America) which should see him a winner.

Should win: Hounsou (In America). This powerful and flawless performance from Hounsou, ranging from mysterious and menacing to tender and heartrending, deserves recognition.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Will win: Renee Zellweger (Cold Mountain). Hollywood darling Zellweger handled this hokey part to perfection and she has star quality and industry loyalty and backing.

Should win: Shohreh Aghdashloo (House of Sand and Fog). This excellent supporting performance may be overlooked as Aghdashloo is somewhat of a Hollywood unknown and her role is dominated by Ben Kingsley's.


Helene Wong, formerly NZ Listener

BEST PICTURE

Will win: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King. If the Oscars are about
cinematic achievement, then how can the Academy not acknowledge it, finally?

BEST DIRECTOR

Will win: Sofia Coppola will be snapping at Peter Jackson's heels with Lost in
Translation, but if she gets Original Screenplay earlier in the proceedings then I'm betting he'll get the directing nod.

BEST ACTOR

Will win: Bill Murray - because he deserves it, that's why.

BEST ACTRESS

Will win: Personally, I'm rooting for Keisha, but appearance-obsessed Hollywood loves gals with the courage to bare it all. No, not Diane Keaton for going without clothes (yawn), but Charlize Theron for going without makeup.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Will win: Tim Robbins - because he deserves it too, for showing something else besides that goofy grin.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Will win: Nurse Betty, Bridget Jones, Roxie Hart ... and now a feisty farmer - what's left for Renee Zellweger to conquer? Maybe something with no makeup?