Last dance for Idol and Stars?

Lorraine Downes and Aaron Gilmore in Dancing with the Stars. Picture / TVNZ

A major question mark is hanging over the future of two of TVNZ's top prime-time performers - NZ Idol and Dancing With the Stars - with the network yet to commit to either show beyond this year.

While both shows are ratings winners, they require a huge financial commitment from TVNZ, already under significant pressure to cut production costs.

The axe has already fallen on one of television's most popular cooking shows, Taste NZ, and rumours are rife Mucking In, another primetime favourite, could soon follow.

Adding to speculation over a future series of NZ Idol and Dancing with the Stars is a $20 million-a-year increase in the cost of TVNZ's international programming deals at a time when the network is also facing falling advertising revenue.

TVNZ confirmed that, despite excellent ratings this year, it had made no decision about commissioning another season of NZ Idol or Dancing with the Stars. The network has an option with South Pacific Pictures for a fourth season of Idol but said it needed to evaluate the success of the current series before making any decisions.

Ratings were not the only consideration. "Our post-analysis includes a wide range of factors and differs according to programme genre and timeslot. Factors would include ratings, commercial yield, charter delivery and audience qualitative analysis," a TVNZ spokesman said.

While no decisions had been made about Dancing with the Stars, TVNZ said it was in discussions with the BBC about another series - with a decision possible before Christmas.

Around 1.2 million Kiwis over the age of five tuned into Dancing with the Stars during its grand finale this year, won by former beauty queen Lorraine Downes and dancing partner Aaron Gilmore. Audiences averaged 800,000 viewers per episode, compared with around 740,000 last year.

The show's original concept is licensed from the BBC's Strictly Come Dancing, which led to US and Australian versions, also called Dancing with the Stars.

Martin Gillman, chief executive of media planning and buying agency Total Media said he would not be surprised if TVNZ canned both shows. The main issue was the huge production costs, he said. NZ Idol's credibility was also an issue with none of the previous winners going on to have a career in the industry.

Idol, in particular, was costly to stage and, with ratings down this year on previous seasons, there was a strong rationale behind not taking up the option of another season.

"It is incredibly expensive and they are getting a diminishing return from it as well," Gillman said.

There were similar issues with Dancing with the Stars but TVNZ may look at cutting costs with a "version" of the show, much like TV3 did with So You Think You Can Dance. Co-host Candy Lane said she hoped TVNZ would go ahead with another season.

South Pacific Pictures managing director Jane Millichip told the Herald on Sunday that, if TVNZ decided not to go ahead with another series of NZ Idol, it was at liberty offer the series to another network.

"NZ Idol is an expensive show, and represents a major commitment for any network, but it is also a television event like no other. Few TV shows have the ability to engage and galvanise the nation in this way," Millichip said.

"Idol delivers huge value in terms of entertainment, ratings, sponsorship and advertising. We are very hopeful of a fourth series in 2007. "

TV3 director of programming Kelly Martin said it would not be interested in acquiring either show.