Kate Hawkesby: What the 1 News Colmar Brunton poll really tells us

On the latest polling, Jacinda Ardern could lead Labour to govern alone but can Judith Collins close the gap for National in the next seven weeks? Photo / Mark Mitchell

COMMENT:

It was good to see a comparison last night in terms of political polls.

There was a good serve from 1 News in their intro when they said "from rogue to reality" - basically confirming the Newshub-Reid Research poll was indeed rogue.

According to the 1 News Colmar Brunton poll, Labour is not on 60, it's at 53. National is not on 25, in fact it is up to 32.

That's still not the high 30's the party claims its internal polling shows, but it sure beats 25.

So a tighter gap this poll, but still with Labour ahead – and far enough ahead to govern alone.

The big story though is the minor parties. The Greens are sitting on the cusp at 5 per cent. They've dropped slightly and will be desperately hoping they don't drop any further between now and election day. They will also be keeping their fingers and toes crossed for Chlöe Swarbrick in Auckland Central.

But Act is the big winner from last night's poll. It has romped all the way up to 5 per cent, it's highest polling in 17 years. This time last year, Act was at 1 per cent.

So the surge there is full credit to David Seymour – a scrapper whose worked his butt off and produced a phenomenal result for his party.

And no one will be wincing at that more than Winston Peters and NZ First, who've been completely eclipsed and are right down at 2 per cent support.

On those numbers, that's them out of Parliament. It might be time for Winston to think long and hard about some more fishing up north.

So with seven weeks to go until election day – what else are we seeing here?

Well a trend for Labour certainly, but credit where credit is due – Judith Collins has had an impact as National Party leader.

She's been in the job all of about five minutes and surrounded by scandal, resignations and chaos. Yet she's shot up to 20 per cent in the preferred prime minister stakes. That's a jump of 18 per cent. Along with her good approval rating, these are good numbers by any stretch of the imagination and she should feel rightfully emboldened by them.

Kate Hawkesby. Photo / Michael Craig

The key question now is, can National tighten the gap, can it get enough momentum to halt the Labour train? Collins said last night that's her goal – that she is in fact the train coming head on at Labour's momentum.

It remains to be seen whether that's do-able. She'll be hoping no more scandal, leaks or resignations will haunt her in the next seven weeks.

Because although the Newshub-Reid Research poll was clearly way out, Labour's still tough to beat at this point.