Golden Globe Awards a toss-up this year

Today's Golden Globe awards pose a tantalizing Hollywood question in a wide-open Oscar race: will the black-tie affair anoint a front-runner as it has often done in the past?

It very well could. The 93-member Hollywood Foreign Press Association has had its detractors over the years, but its Golden Globes -- now in their 62nd year -- have often been the harbinger of things to come at the Academy Awards, the top film prizes voted on by more than 5500 people in February.

This year, the Oscar race is particularly cloudy, with several good films out there, but no "Titanic," "Chicago" or "The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King" towering over its competitors.

Therefore, the race might benefit from the kind of bracing clarification that an awards show, watched by an estimated 250 million people around the world, can provide. (The awards start at 2pm NZ time. Check here for updates.) 

Italian journalist Lorenzo Soria, president of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, says what happens after the Globes is not his concern.

"We had record (television) ratings last year. What will happen this year, I don't know. We are not trying to set any agenda. We are just trying to do the best show that we can. We don't worry if someone follows our lead or not," he said in an interview.

The big question among Oscar watchers is what will win the Globes' best drama category -- will Martin Scorsese's film biography of billionaire Howard Hughes, "The Aviator," take flight or be knocked out by Clint Eastwood's female boxing tale "Million Dollar Baby?"

But the experts at the Goldderby.com show business awards website think "Finding Neverland," a chaste romance about the creation of "Peter Pan," might just pull an upset.

In the comedy/musical category, "Sideways," the critically acclaimed movie about two guys searching for love and/or lust in California wine country, is expected to win easily. But it could face competition from "Ray," a biography of soul singer Ray Charles that won raves for Jamie Foxx's performance.

"Globe voters want to make sure that they go on the flight to the Oscars," said Tom O'Neil, who heads Goldderby.com., explaining why he expects some interesting choices from the Hollywood Foreign Press Association.

"I think Globe voters care most about two things: predicting the Oscars and sending a message that they as foreign press like to back classy foreign performers."

"So the big question is how foreign will the foreign press be?" he added, noting that performers like Britain's Imelda Staunton, star of "Vera Drake," and Javier Bardem of Spain, star of "The Sea Inside," have good chances at victory in their categories, best actress and best actor in a dramatic film.

Staunton's chief competitor in the dramatic actress category is Oscar winner Hilary Swank, who plays the gritty boxer in "Million Dollar Baby." Bardem is up against Leonardo DiCaprio and Johnny Depp. The Globes were the first to recognize Swank when it named her best dramatic actress for "Boys Don't Cry." She won the 1999 best actress Academy Award for the role.

Annette Bening, whose performance in "Being Julia" has spurred Oscar talk, is nominated in the best actress comedy or musical award.

If "The Aviator" won the Globe and then went on to win an Oscar it would constitute a first: A movie about Hollywood has never won a best picture Academy Award and, for that matter, neither has Scorsese, one of America's most important filmmakers with works like "Taxi Driver" and "Raging Bull" under his belt.

"The Aviator" deals partly with Hughes' turning the film capital into his private playground and having affairs with Jean Harlow, Ava Gardner and Katharine Hepburn and even designing Jane Russell's bra for one movie.

Some film experts see Globe voters naming "Aviator" best dramatic film and giving Eastwood the director award or vice versa.

The Globes also give awards in supporting categories and for television.

- REUTERS