Daniela Elser details some of the big unknowns to keep an eye out for at Queen Elizabeth's funeral service. Photo / AP
OPINION:
In a matter of hours, an eerie silence will descend on central London.
For the first time since 1965, a State funeral procession will wend its way through the city, the route lined by military personnel, the streets echoing with only the sound of 142 sailors pulling the State Gun Carriage bearing Her Majesty's coffin.
For the United Kingdom, the loss of the Queen, who shepherded an ancient institution into the 21st century, has been a convulsive shock.
Of course, she was inching her way towards her centenary and her health had clearly been in decline over the past 12 months. But no matter how inevitable her passing, Her Majesty – the perennially poker-faced, no-nonsense leader who liked a good bar heater and the Racing Post – has been such a fixture in the national psyche.
For the world, we are about to farewell a woman whose fame only matched her inscrutability; for the royal family, they are losing an adored mother, grandmother and great-grandmother; and for the monarchy, an unlikely saviour.
Her Majesty was, most likely, the last British queen any adult today will ever witness and as Monday gets underway, London is gearing up for the biggest and most important State occasion since the death of her father, George VI, in 1952.
Even though Operation London Bridge might have set down, minute-by-minute (quite literally) how the events of today will unfold, the modern House of Windsor is one equally defined in the public imagination by the simmering dramas that have beset Buckingham Palace in recent years.
Here are the big unknowns to keep an eye out for today.
The seating politics
Oh boy, this is going to be fascinating stuff. Up until Megxit took effect in 2020, Harry and Meghan, the Duke and Duchess of Sussex, were perpetually to be found immediately behind or next to William and Kate, now the Prince and Princess of Wales. However, come June this year for the service of thanksgiving for the life of the Queen at St Paul's cathedral, the Sussexes were quite literally put in their place, the second row.
Oh, how the HRHs had fallen.
The messaging of this choice was about as brutal and blunt as it can get; you wanted out to pal around with Oprah and get on the Netflix payroll? Then second row, royal cousin territory it is.
But that was when they were the grandchildren of the monarch. That calculation changes given that Harry is now the son of the King.
So what does this mean for the Queen's funeral? To be honest, I'm not sure. Will precedence spin out Her Majesty's family around the front rows inside Westminster Cathedral based on where they stood when she was alive? Or based on where the cards fall now that Charles is King?
A Harry and Meghan olive branch
The last week has seen the royal family make a number of gestures towards the Sussexes, with everyone politely ignoring the fact that 18 months ago, the couple was busy telling global TV audiences how miserable royal life was.
At this stage, that "don't mention Oprah" approach looks like it can be put down to pragmatism, with both Team Windsor and Team Sussex doing their darndest to ensure that their rift does not overwhelm or distract from honouring the Queen. (Bravo all around there, chaps).
Could we see this extend to some sort of moment between the Wales and the Sussexes similar to what played out after Prince Philip's funeral?
Back in April 2021, with Oprah's incredulous "huhs" still ringing in the world's ears, following the service for the late Duke of Edinburgh, Kate, William and Harry, and then just the two brothers, were seen in conversation. Quick! Someone ring the reconciliation bell! Except then, as now, that moment looks largely contrived.
Here's the $169 million question (which is the value of the Crown stamp collection): Will we see another moment like that come to pass today? It would inject a note of conciliation and outreach on the part of The Firm and would play sensationally well in the press.
(Not to get too philosophical so early but, what is a monarchy in the 21st century if not an outfit that is built on signs and signals? On optics and image?)
George and Charlotte
The last year has seen a very marked upturn in terms of the public appearances of William and Kate's three young children. How much of that is down to wanting to counteract the Sussexes' message of a toxic royal family and how much is simply because the kidlets are older? We have to park that one in the unknown pile.
However, early this morning, the Palace released the official Order of Service for the funeral, confirming that the Wales' eldest two, Prince George, 9, and Princess Charlotte, 7, will be in attendance and will walk behind their great-grandmother's coffin as part of the official procession. (Prince Louis, 4, whose antics stole the show during the Jubilee was considered to be too young.)
The Telegraph has reported that William and Kate thought "very carefully" about the inclusion of their children, with courtiers having asked the couple "to consider bringing Prince George because of the powerful message it would send".
At the time of writing it is not known if George and Charlotte will also take part in the official procession at Windsor later today too.
Now, while the kids have attended high profile family events before, including the thanksgiving service for Prince Philip in March and taking part in the carriage procession during this year's Trooping the Colour, their participation today is a significant step into their royal careers and in their public lives. How will they fare? Never before have George and Charlotte attended an event of this magnitude and which will be watched by possibly billions of people around the world and live.
The faction question
In mid-August, the Daily Mail's Dan Wootton authored a story alleging that "many lower ranked royals are now in open revolt about the [Sussexes] – and prepared to make their feelings clear behind palace walls".
"Marking that shift of tone, even Harry's former allies Zara Phillips and Mike Tindall are said to have been highly critical of the couple's stand-offish, haughty and arrogant attitude during their last visit for the Queen's Platinum Jubilee," he wrote.
"Outside of disgraced Prince Andrew, Fergie and his two daughters Eugenie and Beatrice, who have made an extra effort to stay close to Harry and Meghan, and the Queen herself, the couple's allies in the family are now non-existent."
If this is the case, will we see this dynamic play out during the funeral?
While the service is obviously a State affair, there may still be moments of milling or spontaneous interaction for the royal family. Will there be any sort of obvious divide among the Queen's grandchildren? Will we see this alleged faction situation be evident today? Or will they be able to maintain their fragile united front one more time?
The Andrew gamble
Today is the Duke of York's last hurrah as front row player of the royal family, and that is simply by dint of the fact he was one of the Queen's children. He will not, as we all know, be wearing his military uniform (neither will Harry) and the conspicuousness of his black morning coat will be a grim reminder of the most sordid, mismanaged chapters in modern royal history.
In April 2021, after the death of Philip, we saw Andrew give a TV interview about his father's passing, which gave rise to claims he was capitalising on the moment as a first step towards a comeback, and reportedly raised hackles inside the Palace.
Then in March this year, at the last minute, he escorted his mother to her seat inside Westminster Abbey for a memorial service for the duke.
Would Andrew be daft or self-involved enough to try and stage something like that today?
Could he see this as the last-ditch moment to try to rehabilitate his decimated reputation? If this was anyone else I would say no, no one could be that self-serving ... but with Andrew, all bets are off.
The Fergie unknown
The relationship between the Queen and her second daughter-in-law featured more ups and downs than a mid-sized roller coaster. Way back when in the '80s, the boisterous redhead is said to have immediately won over her future in-laws with her bubbly personality and jolly hockey sticks bonhomie.
The beginning of her royal career saw her outshine, truly, the increasingly miserable looking Diana, Princess of Wales, who was struggling with mental health issues and a disintegrating marriage. ("Is Fergie Leaving Di Flat?" a 1987 Vanity Fair cover story asked).
But that all soon soured with the York marriage falling apart, and the duchess started to appear in London with her, cough, "financial adviser" John Bryan.
In August 1992, Fergie (by now separated from Andrew) was staying at Balmoral when pictures of her topless and having her toes enthusiastically sucked by Bryan were splashed across front pages. Since then, she has publicly talked about having to go down to breakfast and face her mother-in-law's icy displeasure, before having to vacate the castle.
That would be the last time for many years that Fergie would garner a coveted invitation to Scotland and various self-created imbroglios, the near-bankruptcies, the forays into the US home shopping network, the Weight Watchers campaigns and being caught on camera trying to sell access to Andrew all hardly endeared her to the Queen. (Philip could not stand her, an attitude that reportedly didn't waver.)
However, what did impress Her Majesty was the way that she and Andrew raised their daughters, Beatrice and Eugenie.
Over the last 10 years, Fergie has been brought tentatively back into the fold, including appearing with the family at Royal Ascot and being included in York getaways to Balmoral, albeit when Philip was not around.
So, given this complicated history, given that she seems to be barely tolerated by her former brother-in-law King Charles, and given this is a State occasion, will she be there? Will she make her final appearance with the royal family given her bond with Her Majesty?
(The duchess was not invited to the Prince and Princess of Wales' 2011 wedding, but was to the 2018 union of the Duke and Duchess of Sussex).
Stay tuned.
Daniela Elser is a writer and a royal expert with more than 15 years' experience working with a number of Australia's leading media titles.
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