Niwa outlook: La Nina effects may bring drier weather and heatwaves to Kāpiti Coast this season

Warmer days are on their way to Kāpiti Coast thanks to La Nina. Photo / 123rf

Kāpiti Coast residents can expect warmer days, according to the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research’s October-December seasonal outlook.

The report states there is a 55% chance of temperatures being above average in the central North Island region, which includes Manawatū , Whanganui, Horowhenua and Greater Wellington.

Niwa principal scientist of forecasting and media Chris Brandolino said the expected temperature rise was due to La Nina, the cooling of surface ocean water along the tropical west coast of South America, resulting in humid northeasterlies.

The northeasterly winds would contribute to the temperature being above 25C for more days than normal, Brandolino said.

“We think there’s a 60-70% chance this will develop by December, bringing more high pressure south of New Zealand over the next three months, coming with a gradual reduction in the typical westerly winds. This means drier weather.”

Before it dries off, people can expect an unsettled start to the season.

“People may experience wetter weather, but that is not indicative of how the season will go as a whole. This doesn’t mean that every day it will rain, it just means as a whole the trend is unsettled weather.”

He said despite this, the area was expected to have a drier lean with equal chances of rainfall being near normal or below normal.

“We are just reporting on the trends of what we could expect for this upcoming season.”

As we got into November and December there was the potential for dryness, Brandolino said.

“This is from those northeasterlies caused by La Nina. Historically, those heatwaves will create an inviting temperature for swimmers and surfers.”

He said another event that would influence the heat was the ocean temperature.

“We’re currently watching the water temperature and we expect it to be up, meaning it’s hard to get those long and frequent cold snaps. While this means warm weather for us, we have to think about what this will mean for the aquatic life.”

He said the best place to get up-to-date information was Niwa’s Drought Forecast.

To check out the forecast, go to https://shiny.niwa.co.nz/drought-forecast/.