KEY POINTS:
Polls in the Maori electorates indicate five or six - perhaps even seven - seats for the Maori Party. But general polls point to an entitlement on the party vote of only three or four seats.
Are the general polls underestimating the Maori Party's support? Not by much, if 2005 is a guide. Then, polls for the six months up to election week gave the Maori Party an average of 1.8 per cent. In the election it scored 2.1 per cent.
Polls for the past six months this year have given the Maori Party a 2.4 per cent average. If the 2005 election-day lift is replicated on November 8, it would get 2.8 per cent. A party vote of that size would at most entitle it to four seats. So a six-electorate haul would mean two overhangs, possibly three.
If the Maori Party then in effect decides which main party will lead the government, other voters might baulk. Its long-term ambitions might be better served if National can govern without it because even then, senior National MPs say, National would still want to do deals.
Can a National-Act-United Future combination get there? The combination's poll average has been falling since midyear (see graph). The latest reading is just above 50 per cent.
That is 7 per cent ahead of the Labour-Greens-Progressive combination's latest average just above 43 per cent. The Maori Party could not close that gap even with all seven Maori electorates - unless New Zealand First is also in the mix. New Zealand First is still averaging only 2.7 per cent and can't count on Tauranga.
National's own-score trend is down and points towards 47-48 per cent on election day. Labour's trend is up and pointing towards around 36 per cent on election day. The Greens have bounced up lately to be on track for 6-7 per cent. Act's 1.8 per cent average gives it some hope of three seats. United Future will be hoping its deal with John Key can lift it above its one-seat current average.
* The poll of polls is a rolling average of the four most recent polls at each date. Since five polls are included, one is necessarily missing from each point and sometimes a poll features twice. The five are HeraldDigiPoll, TV One- Colmar Brunton, TV3-TNS, Fairfax Nielsen and Roy Morgan.
