KEY POINTS:
Maori voters are down in the dumps again, after the surge of excitement that swept the Maori Party into Parliament three years ago.
The Herald's survey of 600 voters from Cape Reinga to Invercargill has found that Maori are back to being the gloomiest of the country's four main ethnic groups, as they were the first time this survey was done, before the 2002 election.
Asked to rate the state of the country on a seven-point scale between "excellent" and "awful" at that time, only 33 per cent of Maori said it was "good" or better, well below the average of 49 per cent.
In the same survey before the 2005 election, Maori optimism was at 57 per cent - above the national average of 52 per cent.
But this year, as recession drags the overall "good or better" rating down to 33 per cent, Maori have plunged even lower to 29 per cent, slightly below Europeans (32 per cent) and well below Pacific people (49 per cent) and Asians and others (56 per cent).
Sandra Taratu, 43, a chicken boner and mother of three from Mangere Bridge, says things are "awful" as working families struggle with rising food and energy costs and, until this week, no tax cuts.
"They are paying all our tax on the beneficiaries. They should be working too," she says. She's switching to National.
In Invercargill, Ngai Tahu farm worker Barbara Kerr, 53, echoes the same sentiments: "They are bringing in that many immigrants, yet they've got plenty of people on the dole. They are being handed the dole, they are not doing anything to earn it. Get them out at 4am and go and milk cows - there's plenty of work out there."
No doubt the gloom is partly for economic reasons. The dramatic fall in unemployment from 1999 to 2005, which benefited Maori more than any other group, has stalled.
But a bigger factor may be political. The intense heat of the 2003-05 period, during which 20,000 Maori marched on Parliament to protest at the nationalisation of the foreshore, has cooled.
The Labour Government has done a deal with Ngati Porou, proving that iwi can still negotiate co-management rights to sensitive bits of foreshore under the new law.
And new National leader John Key has taken a message of "inclusiveness" to Maori gatherings, even though his party said this week that it still wants to abolish the Maori seats by 2014.
These concessions seem to have flattened the proud assertiveness that was such a feature among Maori voters in 2005.
The pride is still there among Maori Party voters such as Far North farm worker Latimer Brown, 48, who is voting for the party again "because of myself really - at least they have got our name in there somewhere".
But self-esteem is now tempered with the reality of being a minor player in Parliament.
Asked how the party's four MPs have gone, Mr Brown says: "Not very well, have they?"
This survey interviewed 86 Maori and part-Maori voters, on Maori and general rolls. At this stage, 73 have definite party leanings.
Of this small sample, 39 per cent plan to give their party vote to Labour, 29 per cent to the Maori Party, 15 per cent to National and 17 per cent to NZ First, the Greens or others.
Labour is still ahead, but it has had a net loss of nine of the 25 people who say they voted for it in 2005.
National is the big winner with a net gain of six voters, gaining a foothold in Maori society not only with strugglers such as Sandra Taratu but also among the small but growing Maori middle class, such as bungy manager Shane Wairau, who featured in the first article of this series last Saturday.
Maori Party support is relatively stable with a net loss of one voter.
But many voters count themselves as both Maori Party and Labour at the same time.
"I'm Maori and, well, I'm sort of Labour. I've always voted Labour and Labour helps low-income people," says Glenfield assembler Jenny Taylor, 50, who is giving her party vote to the Maori Party.
Others, such as Far North truck driver Mark Savage, 47, plan to split their votes again as many Maori voters did last time, giving their electorate votes to the Maori Party and their party votes to Labour.
"I still vote for Labour because they have helped me," says Dawn Conroy of Rotorua, who works at a childcare centre and a diner to support her family. "Even though I have two jobs, I still need that bit of extra income [family assistance]."
Some Maori Party voters such as Wanganui health promoter Diana Muir, 37, will be happy for the party to support either of the main parties after the election.
"I'll vote Maori because I'm Maori and because I can't pick between National and Labour but I know Maori will support one of them," she says.
Others, such as a 47-year-old Lower Hutt public servant who wants to stay anonymous, see the Maori Party as "at the other end of the spectrum to National".
"I wouldn't give Labour my party vote. I'll give them my electorate vote," he says.
"But I want a left government, not a right government. I think the Maori Party will keep Labour honest."
