New poll expected to put Mahuta behind in Tainui

Labour's hold on the formerly safe Maori electorate of Tainui is expected to take another hammering tonight with a poll showing MP Nanaia Mahuta trailing.

The Herald understands a Maori Television-TNS poll due tonight has the MP behind Maori Party candidate Angeline Greensill.

Ms Mahuta holds the electorate with a 3420 majority.

The result reverses the findings of an April Marae-DigiPoll survey which indicated Ms Mahuta would keep her seat.

Although the contest for the seat is close, understood to be less than the poll's 5.8 per cent margin of error, the result is a worry for the MP.

Ms Mahuta and Tamaki Makaurau MP John Tamihere are the only Labour Maori electorate MPs not in winnable list positions.

Ms Mahuta gained prominence last year amid speculation she could leave Labour over its contentious foreshore and seabed legislation.

In May last year she crossed the floor in opposition to the bill, but stayed in the party. However, in November she changed her mind, supported the legislation and removed herself from the party list.

The result is a boost for the Maori Party, which has received a mixed bag in recent poll results.

A Saturday Marae-DigiPoll survey indicated Mr Tamihere was closing in on Maori Party co-leader Pita Sharples in Tamaki Makaurau.

This result conflicted with a Maori Television poll released the day before showing Dr Sharples ahead by 38 points.

* Poll watch: The Maori Television-TNS poll, on Te Kaea at 7.30pm.