KEY POINTS:
The safest reshuffle Prime Minister Helen Clark could conjure up would involve just three vacancies.
Winnie Laban would move into Cabinet to fill the existing vacancy left by David Benson-Pope's resignation, and Maryan Street and Shane Jones would move to ministers outside Cabinet, filling Winnie Laban's vacancy and the one expected to be created at the same time when Dover Samuels resigns.
The most radical reshuffle could see some resignations from the Cabinet, a fresh election of the Cabinet by the caucus, and the reassignment of some major portfolios such as Health or Education.
Helen Clark's own colleagues cannot guess yet which path she will follow - nor when - but it will need to be settled by the end of next month.
And many are bracing themselves for her to demote Cabinet ministers during a parliamentary term, something she has never done.
Helen Clark's instincts have been to play it safe.
The rejuvenation that she is demanding the party undergo could instead happen in candidate selections, through the list ranking process and in new blood through further resignations by list MPs in the coming months.
Louisa Wall and Su'a William Sio are expected to become MPs with the departures of Dianne Yates and Ann Hartley.
But small movements in major positions could add drama to an otherwise safe reshuffle.
There are persistent suggestions Steve Maharey may be contemplating a change in career, and a question mark remains over the future of Speaker Margaret Wilson.
David Cunliffe is tipped for promotion, possibly to the front bench if Progressive leader Jim Anderton can be prised out. He is considered to have handled the difficult Immigration portfolio well as well as having the confidence of the business sector in his Communications portfolio.
Mike Moore's successor in Waimakariri, Clayton Cosgrove, is identified with the right faction of the Labour caucus but is recognised by the left as deserving promotion after his efficient clean-up of the building industry as well as being one of Labour's most effective street fighters.
Trevor Mallard is a Clark favourite but his star has stopped rising and he is no longer consider Michael Cullen's natural successor in Finance. Mr Mallard declined the Health portfolio last time and is cruising with his present Economic Development. He could be in contention to pick up Mr Benson-Pope's Environment portfolio.
Lianne Dalziel has rehabilitated herself ably in Commerce with her return to Cabinet this term.
There are only five women in Cabinet and Winnie Laban would make six. The most effective woman in Cabinet, apart from Helen Clark, is Annette King, who is so well regarded she could almost have her pick of portfolios.
HOT
David Cunliffe
Unpopular with his colleagues but an able minister and a presentable modern face of Labour. Has handled Immigration well and could land a big one in a radical reshuffle, such as Education or Health.
Clayton Cosgrove
The surprise performer since being promoted to the Cabinet in 2005 in stamping on shonky builders. Hardline, no-nonsense type who would suit Corrections, Police or Immigration or a combination.
Nanaia Mahuta
Hasn't put a foot wrong since being promoted to the Cabinet in 2005 and should pick up more meaty portfolios than Customs and dog-chipping.
David Parker
Has overseen a huge policy review process in Climate Change and Energy and can expect a promotion to signal the importance of them to Labour's agenda in election year.
Winnie Laban
An able minister outside Cabinet with responsibility for the community and voluntary sector and the most likely to win the first Cabinet spot, restoring Labour's preference of having a Pacific Island presence.
Maryan Street
Able former party president, and chairwoman of health committee. From the left but respected by right. Could pick up Labour if Dyson gets Social Development.
Shane Jones
High-flyer in Maori fisheries before entering Parliament in 2005. Chairman of finance and expenditure select committee which he is steering well through monetary policy review. Reluctance to promote him too fast. May have to make do with post outside Cabinet.
Darren Hughes
Junior whip, youngest MP and a caucus favourite with a big future. But could be held back because he is valued as whip. He almost lost Otaki last election and he can't be seen to skip over chief whip Tim Barnett.
Charles Chauvel
Hot-shot lawyer who came in on the list after Jim Sutton resigned. Tipped as a future Attorney-General but not likely to make it to the Cabinet this time.
NOT
Mark BurtonDevotedly loyal to Clark and may be too hard for her to sack from Cabinet, but likely to get a serious downgrade in responsibilities - nothing so tough as Justice or Treaty Negotiations.
Damien O'Connor
Popular MP but set to lose Corrections after blotting copybook again by taking suspended guard on parliamentary rugby tour. Not expected to be rewarded with anything terribly exciting.
Rick Barker
Has been nowhere and is going nowhere. Having inherited the George Hawkins set of portfolios (Internal Affairs, Civil Defence, Veterans Affairs), is likely to be given the message that he should follow Hawkins to the back bench.
Dover Samuels
Old party warrior who knows his time has come and has agreed to time his long-signalled resignation for the reshuffle.
