Maori Party could decide ruling side

How do the votes stack up when it comes to making a government?

The chart shows what would have happened if the average of the last four published polls was translated into parties' seats in Parliament and lined up in opposing forces.

The Labour side - Labour, Jim Anderton, United Future and the Greens - totals 65 seats, a narrow majority despite a 7.5-point Labour lead over National. The most logical alternative governing arrangement - National, United Future and New Zealand First - totals 55 seats. Act does not get seats on this reading.

The picture is complicated by an "overhang".

The Maori Party is assigned four Maori electorate seats, on the basis of seat-by-seat Marae DigiPolls and anecdotal evidence. The Maori party's latest poll average of 1.6 per cent of the party vote would entitle it to two seats.

Since it would keep its four electorate seats, it would have two "overhang" seats and the total seats in Parliament would go up from 120 to 122 - and a majority from 61 to 62.

Labour can slip only a little before the Maori Party would get to decide which side governs - unless New Zealand First decided to try for a deal with Labour.

And Labour is probably slipping as National's tax cuts sink in. The four polls in this mix were all taken in the David Lange afterglow and only part of one, the Herald DigiPoll, after National's tax cut details were known - and that suggested some National gain.

For a full measure of the cuts' effect, we will need a whole week's polls.