Yvonne Tahana: Incentives are there for talks to resume

Te Urewera National Park. Photo / Alan Gibson

The state of negotiations between the Government and Ngai Tuhoe is messy but not yet at the point of no return.

Prime Minister John Key has said that tribal ownership is a no-go area, pitting him against the tribe which says the deed to Te Urewera National Park is a bottom line in any settlement.

Belligerence on both sides could leave it dead in the water. But in terms of Maori issues the Government has shown it can think on its feet, and the tribe isn't ready to terminate discussions just yet.

Attorney-General Christopher Finlayson's work on repeal of the foreshore and seabed law is a clear example of fresh thinking about a hugely divisive issue.

The Government's preferred option if repeal did occur was that no single body would own the wet area at the beach. Currently the Crown owns it.

That proposal is a significant departure from the previous Government's position and it moved the public debate forward in an unexpected direction.

At his post-Cabinet press conference on Monday Mr Key reiterated that a full vesting of Te Urewera National Park in Tuhoe wasn't possible unless there was "another leg to that transaction".

So the question should turn to ... what could both the Government and Tuhoe live with, in terms of exploring what a new form of ownership might look like?

If the Crown can rethink options in terms of the foreshore and seabed repeal there's no reason ownership can't be redefined in another way here.

The cost of not sorting this is high for Tuhoe.

Getting iwi members to mandate a deal is a fraught enough process - if this attempt fails they will have only to look down the road to Opotiki and their tribal neighbours for an example of where they don't want to be.

Whakatohea rejected a Crown offer in the mid-90s and since then has been able to gain no internal traction on a path to settlement.

While Tuhoe says it is willing to walk away from the settlement, to do so risks important gains around mana motuhake or self-government.

On the Government's ledger, the cost of Treaty negotiations can run into the millions - repeating the process with another Tuhoe group is wasteful and it isn't something the Crown Forestry Rental Trust, which foots the lion's share of the cost, is likely to be happy about.

When negotiators on both sides re-engage, they are likely to be much quieter about it.

If Mr Key and various Cabinet ministers were twitchy about this impasse then you can bet they'll be much more silent about future discussions.