KEY POINTS:
Paradoxically, the outcome of the election in a fortnight's time will be determined by Maori MPs. Either Winston Peters (yes he's Maori, not Italian) will pull off the near impossible and NZ First will squeak back in with 5 per cent of the vote, or if he fails, then Helen Clark and John Key will need the Maori Party.
Polls have consistently had National leading Labour by well over 10 points for more than a year. The general perception is that it's a mere formality that Key will inherit Clark's office after the election. If we were still under the first-past-the-post system, National would win over three-quarters of the electorates in a landslide. But we are not and National, despite the huge polling gap between it and Labour, is struggling to get a centre-right majority to rule.
It seems strange that the media still promote poll results as if it's merely a contest between National and Labour. It's actually between a Clark-led centre left coalition and a Key-led centre right coalition. At present it's too close to call.
There is little doubt that National will win over 45 per cent of the vote on election day. But even the most optimistic polls for National still don't show that it can rule in its own right or possibly even with its allies, Act and United Future. The Herald-Digipoll on Friday had National at 50.4 per cent of the vote. You would think that if this was the result on election day that Key would have more than sufficient number of MPs to govern. But this assumes that NZ First doesn't squeak in and also assumes that the Maori Party won't win more than the four seats it has now. If either scenario comes about National is in trouble.
Key has been a good performer during the campaign but he has clearly been let down by fuzzy policy and half-wittedness by at least two of his gormless frontbenchers who have made statements this week.
Maurice Williamson has always been on the hard right of his party and a loose cannon. When Bill English was leader he axed Williamson. Key rehabilitated him. Williamson's gaffe a month ago, saying workers wouldn't mind paying road tolls to get to work on time, was embarrassing.
But to have Williamson repeat them again this week had Key spewing. English must be smirking and dying to tell Key I told you so.
This distraction was overshadowed by an even more public embarrassment of fellow hard-right frontbencher Lockwood Smith's complaints to a newspaper that it wasn't fair for employers who bring in cheap overseas labour having to show these itinerant workers how to use modern toilets and bathrooms.
Smith cheerfully added the helpful advice that it is better to bring in Asian workers rather than Pacific Island workers because their hands were smaller and therefore they are more nimble at picking crops.
Although it is all a short-term headache for Key there is a silver lining. If he does manage to win the election he has a ready-made excuse to dump two senior members of his right-wing faction.
Key has done a good job in moving his party to the centre after his predecessor took it to the right at the last election using dog-whistle racism to gather in the party base.
Smith's unguarded comments expose a nasty side of the Nats that won't be lost on the Pacific Island and other migrant communities.
If the publicity of these comments even knocks 1 or 2 per cent off National's vote it may be the difference between winning and losing, and certainly puts it at the mercy of the Maori Party.
It will make it harder for the Maori Party to convince its supporters that National has changed its spots and be considered a possible coalition partner. Maori voters overwhelmingly prefer Labour over National.
National's post-election price to the Maori Party was always going to be high. Polls show the size of Parliament will increase to at least 125 seats and therefore make it almost impossible for National and its right-wing allies to get a majority without the Maori Party.
National would probably have to repeal the foreshore and seabed legislation and guarantee the future of the Maori seats for the Maori Party to risk its electorate base. It's a big ask, of course, but after nine years in the wilderness I think the Nats would trade their grandmother if they had to.
If National is not prepared to make these concessions the Maori Party would be crazy to go into coalition with them.
Clark and Key understand that they are almost certain to have to deal with the Maori Party if they want to be prime minister. If we believe the polls, Clark's best chance of keeping her job is if the number of MPs in Parliament is increased above 120 because of an overhang.
If that happened National and its allies would just fall short of a majority of MPs. This would only happen if the Maori Party won more electorate seats than its party vote percentage allowed. Ironically Labour's slim chance to remain in government may happen if the Maori Party defeats it in the seven Maori electorates and National won't repeal the seabed and foreshore legislation. How delicious.
