KEY POINTS:
What on Earth is the Maori Party playing at?
One moment Pita Sharples is suggesting Labour is its preferred partner in Government, the next Tariana Turia is saying the door is still open to National.
One moment Turia is warning that Lockwood Smith's unfortunate remarks about Asians and Pacific Islanders risk jeopardising Maori Party-National relations, the next she is saying he has apologised and it is time to move on.
One moment she is pushing the entrenchment of the Maori seats so they cannot be abolished by simple parliamentary majority as a bottom-line in post-election talks, the next she is saying she will put the matter on the negotiating table and "let's see where that goes".
With National's lead in the polls narrowing and the Maori Party poised to hold the balance of power, the constant shifts and backtracking might suggest vacillation and indecision. But Turia is a shrewd operator. While she and Sharples, the party's co-leaders, may be miscommunicating, every word Turia utters is very measured and very deliberate. Her tactics bear a marked resemblance to those employed by Winston Peters during the first MMP election in 1996 when NZ First was in a similar position of kingmaker.
Peters dropped veiled hints in his speeches about which way NZ First would go. One moment it looked like Labour, the next it seemed National would be favoured. The guessing game kept everyone on tenterhooks - and ensured Peters remained a pivotal figure in that election campaign.
Fast forward a dozen years and the Maori Party is the minor party making headlines. Contrast that with the Greens. They have formally anointed Labour as their coalition preference, thereby automatically cutting their bargaining power in post-election talks. Though polling strongly, the Greens have consequently struggled to get attention in this campaign.
To maximise votes for her party, Turia is saying the Maori Party will talk to both Labour and National after the election, thereby underlining her party's independence, maintaining its bargaining power and strengthening its appeal to Maori voters by intimating it will be able to secure major policy trophies in post-election negotiations.
Meanwhile, Turia is throwing up a few teasers beforehand just to keep the two big parties on their toes and remind them they should take nothing for granted. It is a delicate balancing act, however.
Labour is the Maori Party's only real competition in the Maori seats. Siding with Labour too overtly is to the Maori Party's obvious disadvantage when it comes to winning votes in those seats. But too much sidling up to National is risky as voters on the Maori roll overwhelmingly want the Maori Party to go with Labour. Turia cannot afford to give Labour licence to say a vote for the Maori Party is a vote for National.
So expect to see the Maori Party continue to veer backwards and forwards between Labour and National until election day.
