When the Maori Party MPs front up to their members at their annual meeting today, Pita Sharples will no doubt declare the Prime Minister's decision to back a joint bid led by Maori Television for the Rugby World Cup rights as a victory. If it is, it is a sour victory.
When John Key was asked what lessons National's ministers could learn from the debacle, Dr Sharples' quip, "I have a list here", was unnecessary given his own part in it.
He would do better to produce a list for himself. By not revealing earlier the $3 million that the Ministry of Maori Development, Te Puni Kokiri, was putting up for Maori Television's initial bid, Dr Sharples did much to undermine the trust National's ministers have placed in him.
It was an understatement when Dr Sharples declared he had been naive in not fully informing the Government of Te Puni Kokiri's contribution.
He apologised to John Key, and he does contrite well. To reject the apology would be like withholding food from a labrador.
Until now, Dr Sharples has enjoyed a sacred-cow status - immune from criticism and given extra licence because of his broad public appeal and his close relationship with Mr Key.
His handling of the rugby bid has changed that.
As Maori Party co-leader, Dr Sharples' public appeal is so high that he borders on indispensable to the party. As a minister he has so far survived on charisma rather than through a solid performance.
Admittedly he has been distracted this year by the ill-health of a family member. He also still has his training wheels on.
He began well enough, given headroom by National to carve out his own niche in both Maori affairs and his associate portfolios of education and corrections.
He worked hard and effectively in setting up an economic taskforce to deal with Maori businesses. There was also the rehabilitation units for Maori prisoners and Maori language initiatives.
His idea that Maori be given open entry to universities was pie in the sky, but at least in tune with Maori Party policies.
However, in the past six months he seems to have lost his way. While with the Prime Minister on a trip to the Pacific Islands in July, he took it upon himself to announce the Government was signing the Declaration on Indigenous Peoples' Rights.
This forced John Key to contradict him and point out the Government still had to work through the legal implications.
There was his decision it would be a good idea to pop over to Fiji to visit and apparently lend moral support to its interim Prime Minister, Frank Bainimarama.
There was his confusion about what assurances the Maori Party had been given in return for its support of National's emissions trading scheme. The entire episode - which Dr Sharples fronted on - was handled clumsily by the party.
High on big vision, he is weak on process. A magnificent sight - evangelical even - as a public speaker, he stumbles in the more rule-bound environment of Parliament's question time.
It is car-crash viewing as National's Gerry Brownlee and his own party whip, Te Ururoa Flavell, come to his rescue under even the feeblest attacks from Labour.
The Rugby World Cup bid fiasco has also served to put further strain on relations within the Maori Party itself.
Tensions were already beginning to show as the party's MPs adjusted to the higher demands, the need to compromise and the expectation of delivery that comes with being part of government.
Hone Harawira's discomfort with the relationship with National is well-aired. The party's media manager, Derek Fox, left last week in what appears to be a case of too many outspoken people in one place.
More concerning are signs of disconnect between the two co-leaders.
The two leaders are complementary - Tariana Turia, the quiet grafter who believes rules are there for a purpose, versus Dr Sharples, who is all passion and big vision. The inevitable consequence is that they will not always see eye to eye.
There are murmurings of turf wars over key policy issues and worrying signs of a lack of communication between the co-leaders.
The starkest public example was Dr Sharples' office sending Mrs Turia to front on the issue of the Maori seats on the Auckland Council without properly briefing her.
It left her floundering live on television in a head-to-head with Act leader and Local Government Minister Rodney Hide, as Hide talked about a paper he and Sharples had worked on.
Mrs Turia was oblivious to the existence of the paper and apparently what Sharples had pushed for.
Somehow the school of hard knocks hasn't quite managed to drive the idealism out of Dr Sharples. This is his most endearing quality. It is also his biggest liability.
Mrs Turia's calmer leadership is more strategically necessary.
It was undoubtedly the realisation of this, rather than any hankering to keep her ministerial posts, that prompted her to reverse her decision to depart in 2011.
Mrs Turia's concern will be that Dr Sharples' loose lips will one day sink waka.
She is well aware that the rugby bid should never have reached the point where it tested relations with the governing partner.
After last week, she will be looking for ways to tighten Maori Party processes and channels of communication both among themselves and with National to prevent a repeat of the miscommunications of last week.
There are bigger issues ahead. The Government's response to the seabed and foreshore review is expected next month. The party is expecting a repeal and will probably get one, but there will also need to be work on what replaces it.
The party also has a lot of work ahead on the emissions trading scheme. It will require some smart work by the Maori Party for it to actually secure the potential gains it wants to help protect iwi forestry and fishery interests while simultaneously buffering low income earners.
It has to decide what to do with the double whammy of ACC levy increases and reduction of entitlements. Mrs Turia has her own work under way on the party's whanau ora policies - a far-reaching proposal to devolve significant portions of government spending for iwi social agencies to use to improve overall whanau welfare.
These don't carry the same headline impact as Dr Sharples' most recent cause celebre, but they will be more fundamental when the Maori Party's long-term success is tallied up.
This story may have a happy ending for Dr Sharples. It came at a cost to both the Maori Party and National Party. The discovery National's ministers had set about secretly brokering a competing bid against Maori Television's was a brutal lesson for the Maori Party.
A more brutal lesson was that Mr Key knew of that bid when he was making public statements indicating he would not block Maori Television's bid - statements Dr Sharples had taken as endorsement.
A rethink by John Key ultimately rescued Dr Sharples. But Dr Sharples learned that the relationship had its limits. Mr Key can ride in to save face for Dr Sharples only so often before causing resentment in his own ministerial ranks.
<i>Claire Trevett</i>: Luck running out for gaffe-prone Sharples
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