It's hard to see how the Government is going to get out of the trouble it is in with the Ihumātao land protest.
Be creative, it is being told. Come up with an innovative solution, they say. But, what solution is going to be so innovative and so creativeit won't create some sort of domino effect?
Buying the land and giving it back is obviously not an option. The Government has said as much. Doing that, the Government keeps saying, would undermine past treaty settlements.
Yup, there are any number of creative solutions. Maybe Auckland Council could be told to buy the land and give it back to mana whenua. Or Kingitanga could buy and return the land. Or maybe Fletchers could be encouraged to give it back for free. Or there could be a land swap. Or the Government could lend money to mana whenua to buy it back. Or Ihumātao could be declared historically significant and bought back like Kate Sheppard's old digs.
There are any number of creative solutions. Take your pick. But tell me which of them isn't going to start the dominos falling? Which one of them isn't going to tell other iwi all you need to do to get land handed to you is camp on it for long enough and the government will sort it out?
And apparently there are iwi watching. One of them is apparently Taranaki-Whānau which opposes the Shelly Bay development in Wellington.
The Ihumātao protest was on its way to potentially getting out of hand but Jacinda Ardern's intervention killed its momentum. Photo / Mark Mitchell
The Prime Minister has copped a lot of flak for stepping into this fracas. That's unfair. She had to. Jacinda Ardern could hardly do nothing. The protest was on its way to potentially getting out of hand. Her intervention killed its momentum.
That was not a mistake.
But, what was a mistake - in hindsight - was calling in the Māori King to help. He hasn't helped. He's made everything worse.
It shouldn't really have surprised anyone that King Tuheitia sided with the young protesters and told the Government to the give land back. He's playing to his base.
Plus, he's no friend of Labour's. A year before the last election he publicly endorsed the Māori and Mana parties. Which is to say, he endorsed any Māori-friendly party that wasn't the Labour Party. He then went on to say he wouldn't be voting for Labour again. Total frenemy.
So now, thanks to him, the situation is worse for the Government. Seven weeks ago the problem was that some young protesters and a handful of celebrities were calling for the return of the land. Today the problem is that the protesters, the celebrities, members of the mana whenua and the Māori King are all calling for the land to be returned.
The problem for Labour is, unless it finds a solution it'll cop the punishment.
Buying the land and giving it back to Māori is not an option for the Government. Photo / Dean Purcell
There's something of a Māori movement underway. Oranga Tamariki's uplifting of children, claims of institutionalised racism in health and justice, and now this. These issues are all feeding a new generation's sense that Māori are unfairly treated and deserve better.
Young Māori could punish Labour electorally if these voters don't get a sense they're being heard. The Māori Party's already pitching for their votes. They'd be happy to take any of the seven Māori seats Labour currently holds.
That's the risk. Where's the reward?
There's the tiny of chance of one. If only Labour can find a creative and innovative way of getting through this mess without undermining past treaty settlements and without encouraging other disgruntled iwi to simply camp on the land till they get their way. How hard does that sound?
Hard enough to make you think the chance of reward is little to none.
