Don't book that table just yet. Though Niwa has shown it can raise kingfish and hapuku fingerlings in commercial quantities at its Bream Bay facility, fish farm cages have yet to drop anchor in the middle of the Hauraki Gulf. And there's little chance much of the high-value product will be landed for local consumption.
But the course is set, now the Government has torpedoed many of the obstacles holding back marine farming in some of our most prized coastal spots, including parts of the gulf and the Bay of Islands.
Aquaculture legislation that took effect on October 1 has created a 300ha zone for finfish farming between Waiheke Island and Coromandel Harbour, a playground for yachties, whales and dolphins. A smaller zone in the Firth of Thames could be a halfway house for juveniles between tank and open sea farm.
The main cage farming block can produce up to 8000 tonnes of farmed fish a year, generating export revenues of $100 million for kingfish or twice that for hapuku, reports prepared for the Fisheries Ministry claim.
The law change also frees up development in an area long earmarked for mussel farming at Wilson Bay, in the north-eastern Firth of Thames, and is expected to stimulate mussel farming elsewhere.
The changes mean resource consent applications will be possible wherever marine farming is not explicitly prohibited in council coastal plans, says Environmental Defence Society senior policy analyst Raewyn Peart. And the Minister of Primary Industries will have power to intervene in council plans to allow marine farming in areas the industry is keenest on.
Mussel farming companies are already testing the waters, lodging coastal permit applications in the Bay of Islands (two sites either side of Moturoa Island near the Kerikeri inlet), at Stephenson Island off the entrance to picturesque Whangaroa Harbour and on the Hokianga Harbour.
Yachties fear more mussel farms in and around Fitzroy Harbour on Great Barrier will mar enjoyment of the fiord-like cruising waters, pose a navigation hazard and reduce potential anchorages in storms.
Elsewhere in the gulf, new marine farms are effectively barred by old statutes until a new coastal plan takes effect. The law change gives the Auckland Council and Waikato Regional Council, who share responsibilities for the gulf, three years to develop plans. But the 2010 national coastal policy statement makes it clear councils must allow for the "social and economic benefits" of aquaculture in their planning.
Allowance for high-value finfish farming will help Aquaculture NZ's ambition to become a billion-dollar export industry. It is also pitched as holding potential for Maori economic improvement, with 20 per cent of new aquaculture space reserved for iwi under a Waitangi Tribunal ruling.
But aquaculture (a term as hard to swallow as greenies find the product) polarises by its very concept: farms on water privatise areas considered public domain. Most people value coastal waters precisely for their lack of development - as places to appreciate for the scenery and as wildlife habitats. Yachties value them for exploration; fishers for a feed.
Aquaculture fits with the Government aim of applying science to broaden the export base and stimulate regional employment - and Niwa's research has attracted significant taxpayer funding. But critics query whether cage fish farming is the kind of clean, sustainable activity the Government should be encouraging.
One likely flashpoint is the western Firth of Thames, where applications covering nearly 5000 ha for mussel spat catching lines (spat are free-swimming juvenile shellfish) have been on hold since a 2002-04 moratorium. The applications are seen as "placeholders" for fully-fledged mussel farms, which would draw strong opposition from coastal communities and environmentalists.
Environmentalists argue the firth - an important nursery for gulf fauna - is a fragile ecosystem because of nitrate-laden sediment runoff from dairy farms. Concern about additional nutrient loadings from finfish farming prompted planners to move the main zone north of the firth to deeper water - where cages will be more vulnerable to storm damage.
Finfish farming overseas has a poor reputation, with past collapses of wild salmon populations blamed on sea lice from salmon farms. The farms are condemned for their use of chemicals, environmental degradation, reliance on wild fish for feed and potential genetic impacts on wild populations from escapes. Some marine scientists compare them to sow crate or battery hen farming.
But advocates cite the Marlborough Sounds salmon farm industry as proof that New Zealand has a better environmental management regime and the ecological - if not the physical - impacts can be minimised.
Much like the sea itself, perspectives on marine farming depend on where you stand ...
The cautionary science
Coastal scientist Dr Shane Kelly warns finfish farming in the Hauraki Gulf will be highly experimental. More research is needed to understand the possible effects of hapuku and kingfish farming on wild stocks.
"I'm sure that every [environmental] effort will be made but it's a new industry to New Zealand."
In a report for the Waikato Regional Council, he identified a range of risks to the Firth of Thames from finfish farming. Escapes could lead to interbreeding between farmed and wild stock, with a potential loss of genetic diversity, theatening the long-term survival of wild fish stocks.
Organic loading of the seafloor is inevitable. Most NZ salmon farms have experienced extreme organic loading - the seafloor becoming devoid of life and emitting gases with adverse effects on plantlife and fish, the report says.
Nitrates from excessive fish food and faeces could add to the nitrogen loading from agricultural runoff in the Firth of Thames - but increased mussel farming at Wilson Bay could offset nitrogen through the filtering effect. Kelly notes that stocking densities, feeding systems and currents can reduce impacts on the seafloor.
Fish farms are likely to be an incubator for disease and parasites that could spread to wild fish stocks which congregate around cages. Kingfish have naturally occurring parasites which may become a problem in confinement. However, the high mobility of wild stocks should reduce the risks.
Chemicals used to combat disease and parasites could degrade the immediate area and be spread by waves and currents.
Kelly warns that finfish farming still relies on large inputs of fishmeal sourced from wild stocks, including anchovies from coastal Peru and west Africa. Though food conversion ratios are improving, a moderate estimate suggests 18,000 tonnes of wild fish would be needed to produce 5000 tonnes of farmed fish.
Farms can cause entanglement of dolphins and whales but good management can minimise the risk.
Marine farms also spread invasive species through the movement of vessels, materials and stock.
The optimistic science
Niwa scientists have shown they can breed kingfish with desirable genetic traits and repeat the cycle in commercial quantities, says its strategy general manager, Bryce Cooper. They expect this summer to prove they can do the same with hapuku - a world first.
Feedback from chefs around the world invited to sample farmed hapuku has been very positive, he says.
"It gives our marine farming industry a quality niche product which could earn hundreds of millions of dollars. We feel we've done something useful."
Niwa is confident the site, about 20km off Coromandel township, is suitable for finfish farming. Cooper says farming will be extensive, with perhaps only 10ha of nets in the 300ha area to keep age groups separated and minimise ecological impacts. The 8000-tonne production limit is intended to keep nutrient loadings in check. The seabed beneath the site is largely bare.
The industry is moving towards feeds with lower fish meal and fish oil content from sustainable sources, while the feed-to-product ratio is improving all the time, he says. "Some objections are based on four or five-year-old information and it's an area where a lot of work is still going on."
Though the new legislation makes it easier to establish finfish farms elsewhere, Cooper predicts a slow take-up - with much depending on what is learnt along the way about survival rates, feed, susceptibility to storm damage and environmental impacts.
"If we do it right there will be a low environmental footprint and an economic benefit to go with it."
The yachties
When the spread of mussel farms threatened the most beautiful sailing haven on the Hauraki Gulf, Coastguard stalwart Kevin O'Sullivan helped set up the Port Fitzroy Protection Society on Great Barrier, with sailing legend and conservationist Tony Bouzaid. Shortly before he died in October, Bouzaid warned 10 more mussel farms could join the six already established in the harbour and near its narrow southern entrance.
Almost landlocked and draped in bush, O'Sullivan says Port Fitzroy is "a piece of Fiordland transplanted on to the doorstep of a major city" and few who've sailed there would disagree.
O'Sullivan says the boating industry is worth far more to the region and country than marine farming, due significantly to the gulf's unspoilt nature. "Auckland is a major city with a cruising ground on its doorstep - but that's only because there's somewhere to anchor when you get there.
"What worries us is the ability of the Minister to direct what shall be in [coastal] plans."
A Yachting NZ position paper on the new regime warns some traditional sailing grounds could be lost and notes small clubs will be hard-pressed to fight consent applications and plan changes.
Coastal residents
Any bid for large-scale mussel farming on the western Firth of Thames will encounter considerable opposition from locals concerned about the visual impacts and restrictions on navigation.
The Kaiaua Citizens and Ratepayers Association, in a submission opposing the finfish zone, said predictions of future economic growth were poorly substantiated and did not factor-in the environmental risks or impacts on recreation.
"We are particularly uncomfortable with the idea of the strongly pro-industry Ministry of Fisheries having major decision-driving influence over the use of our local environment."
The industry leader
Peter Vitasovich bridles at the word "impacts" in relation to marine farming. The Aquaculture NZ chairman prefers to talk of opportunities. "It's a shame, and it's natural, that people always think of the impacts of a marine farm. What's quite interesting is to look at the economic benefits it can bring.
"The legislation is there to enable aquaculture to grow - it has good potential for New Zealand."
Vitasovich says the New Zealand aquaculture industry has proved a very good environmental manager. "It's in our best interests that we manage water quality in a safe and environmentally sustainable manner - water quality is paramount. I don't think there'll be too much of a problem as we do manage things in a good manner."
He says yachties' concerns about anchorages and navigation are blown out of proportion. "I personally think there's a lot of area there to enable recreational users and industry to work in these zones in harmony."
Vitasovich says the law change simplifies a lengthy consenting process but applicants still face hurdles. Applications at Wilson Bay have been 13 years in the pipeline.
"If 13 years to get an application through is cut in half, that's still a bloody long way away.
"At the end of the day we're a little island at the bottom of the Pacific and we grow food for the world. We have to allow it to happen somehow."
He believes finfish farming in the gulf is at least three years away. Ironically, he's concerned the Waikato Regional Council is moving too quickly to call tenders for the finfish space. "Maybe they can see money. The industry is very concerned about the allocation process."
Rural councils
Mussel and oyster farming are claimed to be the biggest employers on the Coromandel and the Thames-Coromandel District Council, Hauraki District Council and Waikato Regional Council see huge potential in finfish farming. A consultancy study for the three councils claims the industry employs about 430 people and contributes $31 million in GDP a year to the regional economy.
Mussel and oyster farm expansion in the Wilson Bay zone alone could contribute more than $60 million and create an extra 350 jobs by 2025, while finfish farming could generate a further $34 million a year in GDP, the Sapere Research study claimed.
The environmentalist
Raewyn Peart, senior policy analyst for the Environmental Defence Society, says the gulf is a degraded ecosystem, under pressure from sedimentation and nutrification from farm and urban runoff, fishing and other human activities. Increased marine farming represents "an added pressure on a system that really needs to be restored".
Peart recently flew over the Marlborough Sounds and was horrified by the "wall-to-wall" marine farms in some inlets and bays. " It highlights what can happen if you don't have a strategic approach."
Fighting consents can be drawn-out and costly for voluntary groups lacking funds, she says. 'If we just go along with things as they are the Hauraki Gulf could become another Marlborough Sounds."
She is pleased that the Auckland and Waikato councils are joining forces to prepare a marine spatial plan to decide the most appropriate uses for particular areas. "Everyone is looking for a slice of the pie and decision-making has been ad hoc. We need to get past that patch-protection and recognise that everyone is dependent on having a healthy productive regime - or there won't be enough fish."
Hauraki iwi
Hauraki Gulf iwi see marine farming as an option for economic revival, using the gains from pending treaty settlements.
Harry Mikaere, a Maori fisheries leader and Hauraki Maori Trust Board vice-chairman, is conscious of past fish farming disasters and the gulf's sensitive status. "The last thing we want to do is start compromising the feral stock. But we have some really good people giving us the science advice."
Mikaere accepts marine farming will always encounter public opposition near the coast and believes the future may lie in ocean-based farms.
The plannersThe key to finding the right balance in the gulf may lie in a marine spatial plan under discussion between the Auckland Council, Waikato Regional Council and Hauraki Gulf Forum.
Auckland Council chief planning officer Roger Blakeley says declining environmental indicators in the gulf will help give an "evidence basis" for decisions.
Graeme Silver, senior coastal policy advisor for the Waikato council, says the spatial plan is likely to see more areas converted to marine farms. Both councils now prohibit marine farming outside existing designated areas. "The spatial plan will take a hard look at that broad prohibition and probably pull it back to protecting specific areas and open up other areas for marine farming," Silver says.
"The spatial plan is our chance to balance things up."
Blakeley says the process could take two years - leaving opponents to be vigilant in the meantime.
