John Armstrong: Maori Party's poll showing will shape events

Disappointed - but not complaining. The Maori Party exempted itself from the predictable outbreak of self-interested squealing that greeted the Electoral Commission's divvying up of the $3 million-plus of taxpayers' money that will pay for election advertising on radio and television.

And no wonder. With just one MP and polling less than 2 per cent nationwide, the new kid on the block did quite nicely, being awarded $125,000.

The sum is not far short of the $200,000 each allocated to New Zealand First, the Greens, United Future and Act.

While some of those parties are moaning about what they got, Labour, which came out tops with $1.1 million, will be wary of this valuable addition to Tariana Turia's campaign kitty.

The money may not go far in terms of television advertising, but radio is another matter. And as far as iwi radio stations are concerned, Labour privately acknowledges it has already been outwitted by the Maori Party in capturing hearts and minds.

That is why last weekend's dramatic Marae-DigiPoll survey, which pointed to the Maori Party possibly securing five of the seven Maori seats, is not being rubbished in Government quarters even though Labour's president, Mike Williams, provocatively dismissed it as "industrial-strength snake oil".

Snake oil or the good oil, it no longer matters. Some polls shape events, rather than merely reflecting them. This is one of them.

It has given Labour's Maori MPs a huge kick in the guts.

Labour had thought it could secure the Maori vote on its record of delivering to Maori in terms of jobs, housing, health and so on - that making day-to-day life better for ordinary Maori counted for more than the theoretical world of perceived, yet unobtainable Maori rights.

The Marae-DigiPoll results suggest otherwise. But the true scariness for Labour is in the bandwagoning effect that sees voters who previously rated the Maori Party's chances of winning more than a seat or two as low now climbing aboard.

The poll is also dangerous because it will surely spur more tactical voting in the Maori seats, with voters ticking the local Maori Party candidate but giving their party vote to Labour.

Labour has no effective answer to that. One school of thought is that Labour should cut its losses. It should accept that some kind of Maori political movement was inevitable under a proportional electoral system and learn how to cohabit with the Maori Party, which does not really have an alternative coalition partner.

That may happen over the long-term. But it is not going to happen in the short-term - and not solely because Labour is determined to retain a strong base of support within Maoridom.

The party is suffering a huge guilt-trip over its Maori MPs being the meat in the foreshore and seabed sandwich. As if preserving its historic attachment to the Maori seats were not motive enough, Labour feels doubly duty-bound to take the fight to the Maori Party on its MPs' behalf.

However, the Labour leadership has an ulterior motive for shutting the Maori Party out of Parliament.

Even if Labour's Maori MPs lose in their electorates, most of them will be returned on the party list. The Labour caucus will therefore retain a sizeable Maori faction - and this could be destabilising.

Those MPs will have to bow to Labour's wider interests. Sitting alongside them will be another set of Maori MPs, more radical and required to compromise to no one.

The performance of Labour's Maori faction will be measured against the performance of Turia's collection.

The pressure could end up pushing Labour's Maori MPs into open rebellion with their leadership - and into co-operation with the Maori Party.

But more worrying to Labour is the Maori Party's potential to reduce the flexibility Labour thought it would have in forming the next Government.

In what is essentially a flag-flying exercise, the Maori Party intends putting up candidates in 32 of the 62 general electorates.

The presence of its candidates on the ballot paper is clearly designed to test the loyalties of Maori voters, who may compromise by splitting their votes and backing the Labour candidate while giving their party vote to the Maori Party.

Labour will not welcome this potential drain on its party vote. However, perversely, a poor showing by the Maori Party in terms of the party vote could be even more problematic for Labour. And it is here that the Marae-DigiPoll result has well and truly struck home.

There is now a distinct possibility that the next Parliament could be in serious overhang, with the Maori Party and the Progressives winning more seats through constituency contests than their party vote entitles them to hold on a proportional basis.

That could mean a 123-seat Parliament. It would also mean a 62-seat majority would be needed to govern.

That may be only one seat more than now, but it is one more seat for Helen Clark to find.

While hardly something to panic about, the additional requirement is disconcerting for Labour because it comes in tandem with United Future struggling to get any bounce in the polls and the Greens flirting dangerously with the 5 per cent threshold.

Instead of being able to comfortably choose between United Future or the Greens as a coalition partner alongside Jim Anderton, all of a sudden the Prime Minister has to contemplate the possibility she might have to forge some governing arrangement that includes both the Greens and United Future, with one being a coalition partner and the other reduced to being a support party outside the Government.

While New Zealand First could yet barge its way into Labour's increasingly complex power equation, there is definitely no room for the Maori Party, despite Don Brash trying to fearmonger that possibility.

Apart from any bottom-lines Turia might bring to the negotiating table, the likes of Pita Sharples, Atareta Poananga and Hone Harawira are considered too volatile a mixture to build a lasting Government around after the election.

Labour, of course, will still be praying for an explosion beforehand.

The Maori Party's high-profile candidates have so far not obliged. They are displaying a notable degree of pre-election self-discipline.

Will Labour's Maori MPs show similar restraint now all the pressure is on them?