John Armstrong: Brash clarifies Maori choice

No wonder Maori are flooding back to Labour. The stark choices on offer this election just got starker.

Maori had a pretty clear idea from Don Brash's Orewa speech last year what National would be cooking up for them. Now they know exactly what is on the menu following yesterday's sequel in Whangarei.

Dr Brash's resurrection of his "no special treatment for Maori" pitch to Pakeha will only intensify the pressure on Maori to vote Labour simply to keep National out.

That pressure was putting the squeeze on the Maori Party, which was also being punished for not ruling out a possible deal with National.

The deal Dr Brash is offering is one Maori are bound to refuse - as Tariana Turia did last night, finally coming off the fence onto Labour's side.

Dr Brash intends to dismantle or downgrade Maori institutions such as the Waitangi Tribunal, Te Puni Kokiri (the Ministry of Maori Development), Te Mangai Paho (the Maori broadcasting funding agency), and even the Maori Land Court.

In return, Dr Brash is offering more nebulous stuff: a "strong focus" on education to challenge "the culture of low expectations" for Maori achievement.

So much for the "me, me, me" election. But then Dr Brash is playing to a different market.

The abolition of the Waitangi Tribunal once historic treaty claims are settled in 2010 may get the most resonance among Pakeha voters who see its rulings as one-sided even though they are not binding.

However, apart from the question of which body would handle so-called "contemporary" claims, such as gas exploration rights, the policy ignores the tribunal's function as a safety-valve. Or does National really need a repeat lesson in the folly of forcing Maori into the courts for redress?

Surprisingly, Dr Brash's speech said little about the seven Maori electorates, although afterwards he was adamant their abolition was a bottom-line.

Maybe it is not so surprising, given that Dr Brash's only realistic coalition option - NZ First - does not agree.

What is striking about the speech is the blithe disregard for the potential backlash of taking an axe to the bureaucracy and agencies through which Maori rights are expressed and upheld.

Well, not quite total disregard.

Dr Brash's assurances about "Maori having nothing to fear" and National "not rushing things" suggest wiser counsel that it might be better to proceed slowly rather than completely alienate a major segment of the population before you have even got your feet under the Cabinet table.

However, Maori have taken their cue from what Dr Brash is telling Pakeha voters.

In a case of the devil you know, the Maori electorates have been swinging back to Labour.

Labour's warning that a vote for the Maori Party is a vote for a Brash-led government was starting to bite, even though Maori voters can split their vote without unduly disadvantaging Labour.

Maori may have realised that if they are to save the Maori seats from abolition, it could be wise to ensure Labour continues to hold them.