Rawiri Waititi had 50 per cent of the vote in last night's Whakaata Māori poll. Image / Whakaata Māori
Rawiri Waititi had 50 per cent of the vote in last night's Whakaata Māori poll. Image / Whakaata Māori
Often controversial and dramatic Te Pāti Māori co-leader Rawiri Waititi is looking likely to keep his Waiariki seat, despite a strong bid by first-time Labour candidate Toni Boynton.
Waititi has taken a secure lead in an exclusive Whakaata Māori poll of the electorate late last week, with 50 per cent, well ahead of Boynton on 22 per cent and Vision New Zealand’s Charles Hunia at 1 per cent, with 15 per cent unsure.
Polling of the other six Māori electorates revealed similar or larger undecided numbers (Ikaroa-Rāwhiti has 29 per cent) but in those cases, the candidates are so close that their elections will depend on how many undecided vote.
Boynton led the fight to win Māori seats on local bodies but this is her first foray into national politics.
Waititi beat Labour’s Tamati Coffey in the 2020 election, then made a name for himself as the first tāne [man] with a moko kanohi [facial tattoo] in Parliament, then fighting the parliamentary dress code of ties in the House in favour of taonga.
He gets much of his support from younger voters; 63 per cent of 18- to 39-year-olds favoured him over Boynton at 23 per cent. He also picks up 49 per cent from 40- to 59-year-olds to Boynton’s 15 per cent. But voters over 60 were less keen, offering only 33 per cent support to Waititi and 31 per cent to Boynton.
If Te Pāti Māori held the balance of power, who would they go with? Image / Whakaata Māori
On the party vote, Waiariki voters followed the same trend as the other six Māori electorates, mostly supporting Labour. In this case, with 37 per cent but with 29 per cent for Te Pāti Māori. Some 8 per cent of Waiariki voters were unsure, while the Greens were on 7 per cent, National 6 per cent, New Zealand First 4 per cent and Act 3 per cent.
Unsurprisingly, given the Labour trend, 67 per cent said if Te Pāti Māori held the balance of power, it should support Labour. Only 15 per cent chose National, 13 per cent said neither and 5 per cent were unsure.
If Labour were to form the next government, Waiariki voters opted for Te Pāti Māori as a coalition partner at 54 per cent but also wanted the Greens at 44 per cent. New Zealand First was a distant third at 13 per cent. Women were keener (62 per cent and 50 per cent) than men (44 per cent and 37 per cent) for both Te Pāti Māori and the Greens.
By age group, Te Pāti Māori most appealed to 18- to 39-year-olds (65 per cent), 57 per cent to 40- to 59-year-olds and 31 per cent to the over-60s. They were more evenly split on the Greens, with 48 per cent for the younger voters, 42 per cent for the over-40s and 42 per cent for the over-60s.
Asked if they would be better or worse off under a Labour-Green-Te Pāti Māori government, 55 per cent thought they would be better off, 20 per cent worse off and 18 per cent saw no difference.
If National forms the next government, respondents chose Te Pāti Māori as a coalition partner at 36 per cent, followed by Act at 22 per cent, Greens 20 per cent and New Zealand First 18 per cent. In the other Māori electorates, most have rejected Act as a coalition partner for the Nats, so this 22 per cent stands out.
But 61 per cent of respondents thought they would be worse off under a National-Act government and 17 per cent better off.
The other Māori electorates all rated Chris Hipkins as their preferred prime minister but Waiariki, polled last Thursday, may be offering him a Covid-sympathy card at 30 per cent compared to Christopher Luxon’s 11 per cent and Waititi’s 21 per cent.
What's important to Waiariki voters. Image / Whakaata Māori
The most important issue for Waiariki respondents is the cost of living at 34 per cent. Other major issues were poverty at 9 per cent and housing at 6 per cent each.
Polling was conducted by Curia Market Research completed on Thursday, October 5. A total of 500 registered voters in Waiariki were polled by landline, mobile and online with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 per cent at the 95 per cent confidence level.
