Labour's Peeni Henare is leading in Tāmaki Makaurau Whakaata Māori poll. Photo / Whakaata Māori
A Whakaata Māori poll has Labour’s incumbent MP Peeni Henare in the lead for the Tāmaki Makaurau electorate.
But he may yet be unseated if younger voters turn out in large numbers and back his Te Pāti Māori opponent Takutai Kemp.
In the poll, completed last Sunday, Henare is on 37 per cent and Kemp is on 27 per cent.
Surprisingly, the third-highest place went to National’s Hinurewa Te Hau on 9 per cent. This is the first time National has put up a candidate in a Māori seat for 20 years.
Henare is 14th on the Labour Party list, so could still return to Parliament if the youth vote crowns Kemp. Kemp herself is sixth on the Te Pāti Māori list but unlikely to become a list MP if she fails to take Tāmaki Makaurau. Te Hau is 38th on the National Party list but could only make it to Parliament on the list if there is a “blue tide” come Saturday.
The Greens’ candidate, Darleen Tana, who has been emphasising that she most wants the electorate to party-vote Greens, still garnered 6 per cent and Vision New Zealand’s Hannah Tāmaki took 4 per cent. Tana is 13th on the Green Party list and may, like Kemp and Henare, enter Parliament should votes go the Greens’ way.
But there is, as in most Māori electorates polled, a big undecided group, this time of 11 per cent.
The large undecided votes are also affecting Te Tai Tonga at 18 per cent, Hauraki-Waikato 14 per cent, Te Tai Hauāuru 16 per cent, Te Tai Tonga 14 per cent, Waiariki 15 per cent, Te Tai Tokerau 14 per cent and the close race in Ikaroa-Rāwhiti between Meka Whaitiri and Cushla Tangaere-Manuel (29 per cent). All political parties are hoping to influence these voters before polls close on Saturday night.
Among Labour voters, Henare attracted more men at 41 per cent than women and Kemp drew more women 34 per cent than men 20 per cnet. Te Hau also found more favour with men at 14 per cent than women 4 per cent.
Henare gained 52 per cent of voters aged over 60 and 39 per cent of 40 to 59-year-olds but only 25 per cent of 18 to 39-year-olds. Kemp pulled in 40 per cent of that young group and only 14 per cent of the over-60s. Most of the unsure voters were in the 18-39 group at 14 per cent and 11 per cent in the 40 to 59-year-old group.
What may help Henare hold the seat is that 92 per cent of voters over 60 say they will definitely vote. The 18 to 39-year-old age group has the lower figure of 80 per cent definitely voting and 14 per cent very likely to vote, though Kemp has been arguing she has seen considerable support on social media among young people.
Tāmaki Makaurau, the most urban of the Māori electorates, follows the lead of the others, with respondents opting for Labour in the party vote (35 per cent), followed by Te Pāti Māori (23 per cent), National (10 per cent), Greens (9 per cent) and New Zealand First (8 per cent). Only 4 per cent were undecided.
Labour drew most of its votes from middle to older age voters while Te Pāti appealed more to younger voters. NZ First attracted most of its votes from the over-60s.
If Labour can form the next government, Tāmaki voters want Te Pāti Māori as a partner (54 per cent) closely followed by the Greens (51 per cent) and in third place, NZ First (23 per cent).
By age groups Te Pāti Māori is favoured by the younger voters but support for NZ First and the Greens is spread across the three groups.
Most Tāmaki voters think they will be better off under a Labour-Te Pāti Māori- Greens government (45 per cent) while 21 per cent say there will be no difference, 23 per cent think they will be worse off and 11 per cent are unsure.
If Te Pāti Māori held the balance of power, 63 per cent preferred it to support Labour, 15 per cent National, neither 17 per cent and unsure 5 per cent.
If National can form the next government, the voters’ first choice for a coalition partner is Te Pāti Māori (39 per cent), Greens (30 per cent) NZ First (27 per cent) and Act (20 per cent). More of the youngest voters favoured Te Pāti Māori while the oldest voters rated NZ First.
The voters were gloomy about a National-Act government, with 53 per cent convinced they would be worse off, with 22 per cent thinking they would be better off and 15 per cent no difference.
The Aucklanders had one single-biggest issue - cost of living (35 per cent). Other issues were economy (9 per cent), law and order (7 per cent) and poverty (6 per cent).
Tāmaki favours Chris Hipkins as prime minister (34 per cent) ahead of Christopher Luxon at 13 per cent, Winston Peters at 11 per cent, Rawiri Waititi 8 per cent, Marama Davison 5 per cent and Debbie Ngarewa-Packer 3 per cent.
A total of 500 registered voters in Tāmaki Makaurau were polled by landline, mobile and online with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 per cent at the 95 per cent confidence level.
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