A mass diabetes screening programme for Waikato Maori has found many more people at risk than expected.
The programme, started six months ago, has revealed nearly 50 per cent more are at risk of developing type two diabetes than previously thought.
Study head Professor David Simmons said the speed with which the diabetes epidemic was hitting was "scary stuff."
Researchers thought about 7 per cent of the Maori population fell into the at risk category but preliminary results show it is more like 12 per cent.
Professor Simmons said a South Auckland study in 1996 found about 7 per cent of the Maori population were at risk of developing diabetes and he believed the Waikato would fall into the same category.
"I would certainly say GPs and health workers are noticing more diabetes coming through."
It is estimated that, across all ethnic groups, 120,000 people have been diagnosed with type two diabetes, and as many again are thought to be undiagnosed. The number diagnosed is expected to exceed 165,000 by 2021.
A Health Ministry survey published in 1999 found that 3.1 per cent of Pakeha and 8.3 per cent of Maori had been diagnosed.
Type two diabetes is New Zealand's leading cause of blindness, kidney failure and lower-extremity amputation. It is also a major risk factor for impotence, stroke, heart disease and premature death. Treating the disease and its complications costs an estimated $340 million annually, estimated to rise to $1 billion in 2021.
Professor Simmons said diabetes had been described as the Aids of the 21st century.
The study, Te Wai o Rona, has found about one in 20 patients have undiagnosed diabetes. It is aimed at identifying those at risk to diabetes and using different interventions to prevent its onset.
Half of those screened would receive intensive treatments which included looking at their diet and exercise. Those people would be assigned a Maori health worker while the other half would carry on as normal.
Professor Simmons said doctors were also seeing younger victims.
He believed if something was not done to stop the epidemic, then in 20 to 25 years' time the health budget may not stretch to meet the demand.
Professor Simmons said a second branch of the study was also being launched looking pregnant Maori women.
It was estimated between 200 and 400 Maori women would fall pregnant over the course of the study.
Professor Simmons said because the study used different treatments he would look at which treatments worked best for reducing the chance of diabetes in the babies born.
The Waikato study, run with the Auckland University of Technology and Wintec, has screened about 3000 Waikato Maori and will run for three years. Professor Simmons said by completion they hoped to have screened 15,000 people.
Diabetes epidemic hits Maori hard
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