KEY POINTS:
TE TAI TOKERAU
Hone Harawira should skate back into Parliament. Polls have daylight between him and Labour's candidate, former school principal Kelvin Davis. However, at 29 on the party list, Davis could still be packing his bags to Wellington.
Likely winner: Maori Party
TAMAKI MAKAURAU
Maori Party co-leader Pita Sharples won't be worried about Labour's Louisa Wall, who at 43 on the list may miss out.
Likely winner: Maori Party
HAURAKI-WAIKATO
A new electorate built on the old Tainui seat. Changed boundaries see key Ngati Maniapoto support for Labour incumbent Nanaia Mahuta shift into the Te Tai Hauauru seat at the southern end of the electorate, while South Auckland, around Manurewa and Papakura, adds an urban Maori element. In 2005, Sharples' election team mobilised voters in South Auckland, so if the Maori Party's Angelina Greensill doesn't take this seat now, she never will.
Likely winner: Too close to call
WAIARIKI
Polls put Te Ururoa Flavell well ahead of Labour's Mita Ririnui, who held the seat before 2005. However, it will be interesting to see what effect, if any, the giant $500 million central North Island forestry deal centred in Waiariki will do for Ririnui. Some tribal leaders criticised Flavell for his performance during the negotiations.
Likely winner: Maori Party
TE TAI HAUAURU
It's a no contest for Maori Party co-leader Tariana Turia, who is running against Labour's Errol Mason.
Likely winner: Maori Party
IKAROA RAWHITI
A tight race between Derek Fox and Maori Affairs Minister Parekura Horomia. Horomia beat Fox when he stood as an independent in 1999 by 600 votes. Fox has been leading polls but Horomia remains a popular and respected candidate.
Likely winner: Too close to call
TE TAI TONGA
In 2005, Labour incumbent Mahara Okeroa beat Maori Party candidate Monte Ohia by 2503 votes. Ohia died in June and lawyer Rahui Katene will represent the Maori Party. A close race but in yesterday's Marae DigiPoll Katene increased her lead to 46.1 per cent support against Okeroa's 40.4.
Likely winner: Maori Party
