Recession no bar to fossil fuel emissions

Atmospheric chemist Dave Lowe. Photo / Mark Mitchell

An early study of last year's carbon dioxide emissions suggests the recession did little to slow greenhouse gases from fossil fuels.

Former Niwa scientist Dave Lowe, now a climate change educator, and two Norwegian co-authors wanted to see how the world economic downturn had affected growth in emissions.

A time lag in the "official" figures meant numbers for 2008 were not yet available, so the trio - all lead authors of the latest IPCC report chapter dealing with the rise of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere - used industry energy data from British Petroleum to update historical records.

They found the recession slowed growth in yearly fossil fuel emissions from an average of 3.7 per cent from 2003-07 to 2.2 per cent last year.

The full effect of the recession will not be known until 2009 figures become available.

The authors said the main driver of fossil fuel emissions growth was coal-burning by China, largely to make exports for other countries. "They're making stuff for us (developed countries)," said Dr Lowe, adding China's greenhouse emissions per capita were still much lower than New Zealand's.

Pollution from coal bypassed oil in 2006 as the biggest source of fossil fuel emissions, said the authors.

Dr Lowe said data on fossil fuel emissions was painstakingly collected in the United States but those records were usually about three years behind.

"We saw a way that we could extrapolate the energy data back into this original (United States) dataset and close the (time) gap," he said.

"The British Petroleum data, which is directed at energy usage, is right up to date."

Asked how well the BP data matched official historical records, Dr Lowe said industry data had appeared to downplay emissions in the 1990s, but since then it had fairly closely matched the independent data.

The study follows a global carbon project study which found there had been a 29 per cent increase in global CO2 emissions from fossil fuel between 2000 and 2008.

The authors of that study suggested that also more man-made CO2 might be staying in the atmosphere because natural "carbon sinks" were struggling to keep up - possibly because of rising global temperatures.

About half of carbon dioxide emissions each year are absorbed by plants and the ocean but there is some evidence these sinks may be slowing in their ability to suck up carbon - though New Zealand scientists last week stressed it was too early to tell.

On average, the Global Carbon Project found there was an annual increase in emissions of just over 3 per cent since 2000, compared with an annual increase of 1 per cent between 1990 and 2000.

"The big worry is that eventually the sinks are going to be overloaded," said Dr Lowe.

"Once that happens we've got a double-whammy because, not only are emissions increasing, but we've got more of it (remaining in the atmosphere)."

With one week to go before the start of climate talks in Copenhagen on December 7, pressure is mounting for countries to commit to a firm agreement to cut the rise of greenhouse gas emissions.

Prime Minister John Key has so far resisted calls to make an appearance at the negotiations, saying last week that a final deal was "very unlikely".

Last week, Chinese premier Wen Jiabao and US president Barack Obama said they would attend, raising hopes that a meaningful deal might be reached.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCCC) has said there is a 50/50 chance of keeping global warming within 2C if industrialised countries to commit to a fall of 25-40 per cent in their emissions from 1990 by 2020.

The United States last week announced a firm emissions reduction target of 17 per cent of 2005 levels by 2020. That equates to about 3 per cent below 1990 levels - compared with New Zealand's target of 10 to 20 per cent below 1990 and the European Union's target of 20 to 30 per cent.