The big talking point is the stunning rise and fall of Spanish-language musical/thriller Emilia Pérez, about a Mexican gangster who transitions into a woman. It bagged a near record 13 nominations but has since seen its campaign dramatically collapse. A social media scandal involving racist past social media posts from the movie’s star Karla Sofia Gascón – the first transgender actress nominated – has firmly scuttled her Best Actress chances, and the movie itself seems to be one of the most divisive Oscar nominees in years, scoring a mere 2.1 out of 5 stars average on popular movie review website Letterboxd. It’s been widely criticised for its portrayal of trans issues and Mexican culture and its poor musical numbers.
Wētā FX crafted the ape characters in hit film Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes. Photo / Wētā FX
Head of VFX Matt Aitken said this year Wētā FX has more people nominated for the Oscar than at any other point in its history. Wētā has previously won seven Academy Awards for Visual Effects.
Wētā technically has a 60% chance of winning with three of the five nods in the category – although fellow nominee Dune: Part Two might challenge that.
How do I watch the Oscars?
They air from about midday on Monday, March 3 and in New Zealand will be streaming on Disney+. RNZ (and the Herald) will also be live-blogging the event – with plenty of thoughts to unpack on the red carpet, a gallery of the must-see looks and clever commentary as the awards unfold.
What will win Best Picture?
Reader beware: Every one of these picks is subjective and quite possibly wrong.
For Best Picture, there are 10 nominees, including crowd-pleasing hits like Wicked and Dune: Part Two and extreme long shots like The Nickel Boys, but realistically only three of them appear to have a chance unless that Emilia Pérez backlash is wildly overblown.
The Brutalist is a stylish and towering three-hour-plus epic about an immigrant architect, Conclave takes us behind the curtain in a wild battle to name the next pope, while Anora is an earthy, bold story of a New York sex escort who falls in love with the son of a wealthy Russian businessman.
We may be going out on a huge limb here, but it feels like while Anora has run the table at many recent awards, its sex worker themes, aggressive energy and heavy profanity may put off older Academy members, who may turn to a more “traditional” Oscar winner instead for Best Picture.
Ralph Fiennes stars in Focus Features' Conclave. Photo / Focus Features
While The Brutalist is a masterpiece of towering ambition and unforgettable imagery, it is possible that an impeccably acted, gorgeous-looking old-school thriller with a more restrained message of tolerance might sneak to the top of the table – which gives papal succession drama Conclave a very thin edge. Conclave also recently took home the British Bafta for best film.
But it’s still a close race. Heck, the academy might go full populist and just hand the prize to Wicked in a real shocker.
Adrien Brody is always watchable, even in a mediocre movie. He was the youngest ever Best Actor Oscar winner way back in 2003 in The Pianist, and is firmly lined up to take his second win. In The Brutalist, an apparently ageless Brody, now 51, takes us on an epic journey of a Holocaust survivor’s rebirth in America. By equal turns confident, sly and heartbroken, Brody dominates The Brutalist's entire 210-minute run time. The main chance for an upset is Timothée Chalamet’s remarkable young Bob Dylan impersonation in the hugely entertaining A Complete Unknown, but at 29, Chalamet’s going to have many other chances.
Will win: Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Should win: Adrien Brody
Demi Moore in The Substance. Photo / Mubi
For Best Actress, Demi Moore has been front and centre for months with her vanity-free portrait of an ageing star who goes to horrific lengths to stay young in The Substance. It’s full-on goopy body horror, which the academy rarely recognises, though. Moore is widely liked and everyone loves a good comeback story, so she could well win. But I keep thinking about Mikey Madison’s sex worker in Anora, who carries the whole movie on her journey from puppy love to foul-mouthed warrior to battered victim. It’s a layered, tremendous turn in the time-worn movie cliché of “hooker with a heart of gold”. For a dark-horse pick, Fernanda Torres in Brazilian film I’m Still Here has also been getting a lot of chatter.
Sometimes, a winner is anointed early on in the Oscars process and just stays there the whole time. Kieran Culkin in the comedy/drama A Real Pain has been that one this year, and it feels like the statue is already engraved with his name. However, don’t overlook acting veteran Edward Norton as folk singer Pete Seeger in A Complete Unknown. Norton really captures Seeger’s mix of corny charm and intense sincerity, he’s somehow never won an Oscar, and it might be seen as the token award the picture takes home.
Will win: Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Should win: Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown
For best supporting actress, Emilia Pérez co-star Zoe Saldaña has also been consistently tipped this year, and could also be the only major award that beleaguered picture takes. The star of Star Trek, Avatar and Marvel movies is glammed down and sings and dances as a put-upon lawyer. She also looks likely to be the only person of colour to win an acting award this year. Still, momentum for Isabella Rosellini as a determined nun in Conclave has also been growing as a possible spoiler.
Even if it doesn’t win best picture, it’s hard not to see Brady Corbet awarded for his direction of The Brutalist, which feels like a grand throwback to the three-hour epics of the 1960s, complete with intermission. It’s also a distinct and unforgettable vision of both obsession and trauma, with an ambition that deserves rewarding. But if Anora runs the table, then its director Sean Baker may take the directing prize too.
Timothée Chalamet in Dune: Part Two. Photo / Warner Bros. Pictures
However, Denis Villeneuve was snubbed entirely for his direction of Best Picture nominee Dune: Part Two. Successfully bringing one of science fiction’s most acclaimed and complex books to the screen in visually dazzling fashion feels like it deserved a Return Of The King-style coronation.
Will win: Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
Should win: Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two
So where can I watch these movies?
Best picture nominees The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, I’m Still Here, Sing Sing and A Real Pain are still in some cinemas. Check your local theatre.
Fellow multiple nominees Emilia Perez, Wicked, The Apprentice and other nominees can be purchased for rental on streaming services.
