Suggesting practical solutions for global crisis

Wars Guns & Votes by Paul Collier. Photo / Supplied

In a world of climate change deniers, holocaust deniers, 9/11 conspiracy theorists and other idiosyncratic thinkers, it's like a cool breeze to read an author who argues a contentious case lucidly and sensibly. Paul Collier is one such zephyr.

The Oxford academic presses for a move away from national sovereignties (which will win him lots of rabid opponents) towards more global political-economic controls (likewise). He examines violence and poverty in countries at the edge of the world's radar, especially the "Bottom Billion".

This means an almost exclusive concentration on sub-Saharan Africa. Collier sees the nations of this region as presidential sovereignties rather than national ones, with rulers who assume the right to oppress their own people. The multiplicity of such states and their leaders' often-violent hold on power are largely responsible for the disasters of the area. It's an Africa where arbitrary colonial borders have resulted in ethnic hatreds and a proliferation of countries too big to function as an extended co-operative, yet too small (and poor) to be economically viable.

The only practical solution, Collier insists, is a form of federalism. He offers a model of seven large entities instead of the present near-50, mostly dysfunctional states. No, it won't be easy: as the book shows, it's much easier to rip a nation apart than to build it up. But Collier is a believer. He claims - and has statistics to support it - that wars and "minor conflicts" are getting fewer. He holds that there is a role for international intervention, armed if necessary.

Some beliefs may offend. He insists that a rush to democracy is often dangerous; that it's a form of government which takes time to establish itself. Its sudden arrival may exacerbate the violent factionalism that dictators often suppress - witness Kenya, Nigeria, post-Saddam Iraq. Solutions?

Collier urges installing international peace-keepers for up to a decade, so there is some long-term stability; the involvement of Europe and the US via a mixture of ethical concern and enlightened self-interest ("no use building a fence around Somalia and hoping it vanishes"); a global under-writing of coup insurance. He provides startlingly specific analyses and evidence.

Some research suggests that democracy is unstable and unsuitable till a nation's annual per capita income exceeds $6000. The same with ethnic diversity: "beneficial effects only set in at higher levels of income". It's a provocative, passionate book. Africa is the author's great love and his frequent despair. It's anecdotal, accessible, amazingly amiable.

Professionals may find all sorts of flaws. Lay readers will be fascinated and often moved. And when you think of the people in our own country who know that the UN is actually the tool of a global conspiracy, those lay readers may find it hard to share Collier's guarded optimism.

Wars Guns & Votes
By Paul Collier (Bodley Head $46.99)

* David Hill is a Taranaki writer.