Jenni Mortimer and Lillie Rohan take a look at the history of the Oscars and explain why they matter.
Video / NZHerald / Getty Images / AP
OPINION
In 2023, the box office may have been dominated by Barbenheimer but, as anticipation builds for this year’s Oscars ceremony, several other films with considerably less hype and marketing behind them are set to give them a run for their money at the 2024 Academy Awards.
From the chilling courtroom thriller Anatomy of a Fall to Martin Scorsese’s harrowing Killers of the Flower Moon, there are plenty of Oscar-worthy films in the running for Best Picture this year if Barbie pink isn’t your colour.
A black writer wrestles with his identity and responsibility as an author in American Fiction, by turns comedic and heartbreaking. Bradley Cooper conducts an impressive biopic alongside Carey Mulligan in Maestro, while elsewhere, childhood friends meet and drift apart and meet again, with a devastating conclusion. No, it’s not One Day, it’s Celine Song’s Past Lives.
Oppenheimer’s Cillian Murphy is a strong favourite to take out Best Actor, while Killers of the Flower Moon’s Lily Gladstone and Poor Things’ Emma Stone have been neck-and-neck on the awards circuit so far. So, who will get the coveted gold statues on the night?
The 96th Academy Awards will be held at the Dolby Theatre at Ovation Hollywood in Los Angeles, with Jimmy Kimmel set to host and presenters including Zendaya, Al Pacino, Chris Hemsworth, Octavia Spencer, Catherine O’Hara and Ke Huy Quan.
You can follow along on Monday, March 11, here on the NZ Herald for all the best red-carpet moments, the glitz and glamour, the triumphs and snubs on the day.
Here entertainment columnist Karl Puschmann and senior lifestyle writer Bethany Reitsma predict the big winners.
Cillian Murphy as J. Robert Oppenheimer. Photo / Universal Pictures
Best Actor
The nominees
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Colman Domingo, Rustin
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction
Who should win?
Karl: Bradley Cooper was hoping to finally score (ho-ho) an Oscar win with his portrayal of famed composer Leonard Bernstein in Maestro. However, he hit a couple of bum notes on the campaign trail which could see his chances diminished. Firstly he became a meme by revealing he spent six years training for the film’s triumphant conducting scene – it appears hard work and effort are now laughable qualities to possess – and secondly by giving an interview in which he said he wouldn’t have taken a bullet for his newborn baby. Wump-wump.
Showing Cooper how to meme was Paul Giamatti. After winning the Golden Globe for Best Actor he was snapped ordering a late-night snack at a fast-food joint, decked out in his tux and casually holding his trophy. Golden Globe wins are usually precursors to Oscar glory but I don’t think Giamatti will win the double.
Beth: If the Best Actor Oscar was all about points for effort, surely Bradley Cooper deserves the win – as mentioned above, he studied conducting for six years to prepare for the role, as well as learning to play the piano. It’s said that members of the London Symphony Orchestra, who performed for the film and under the conductor in real life, had to take a second look to prove it wasn’t Bernstein himself walking onto set.
That said, he’s faced some criticism over that prosthetic nose, which will likely earn the Oscar for Best Make-up and Hairstyling but probably not the Best Actor for its wearer.
Bradley Cooper as Leonard Bernstein in Maestro. Photo / Netflix
Who will win?
Karl: It’s hard to look past Cillian Murphy’s explosive performance as “the father of the atomic bomb” in Christopher Nolan’s biopic Oppenheimer. The film has been regularly hailed as a “masterpiece” and Murphy’s electrifying and intense performance is the foundation that allowed Nolan to build his vision.
A widely applauded performance as a historic figure in a celebrated film that’s weighty, wondrous and quite terrifying seems like a sure bet.
Beth: Cillian Murphy already has the Screen Actors’ Guild award, the Golden Globe and the Bafta, and he’s likely to round that out with the Oscar. He’s waited patiently for his time to shine as the lead in one of Nolan’s films, having appeared in Dunkirk, the Dark Knight trilogy and Inception, and that time has come.
Karl: Lily Gladstone killed it with her performance in Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon. Not only did it receive ample critical acclaim, it also saw her entering the history books as the first Native American to win the Best Actress Golden Globe and be nominated for the Best Actress Oscar. Any other year, she’d probably be leaving the ceremony with Oscar.
Emma Stone’s tour de force performance in Poor Things turned heads and got everyone talking. As fearless and odd as the movie itself, she’d certainly make a worthy winner. Sadly, I don’t see it happening.
Beth: It’s no wonder Anatomy of a Fall is up for Best Picture and Best Director as well as Best Actress – should it go to Hüller? Throughout the film, you’re not quite sure whether to believe her character Sandra Voyter, accused of pushing her husband out of a window to his death, is innocent or guilty, thanks to Hüller’s depiction of a morally grey character. But Killers of the Flower Moon’s Lily Gladstone has already earned accolades for her history-making performance, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see her accept the win.
JaNae Collins, Lily Gladstone, Cara Jade Myers and Jillian Dion in Killers of the Flower Moon. Photo / Apple TV+
Who will win?
Karl: Now I’m not saying her performance is not worthy of the win. If anything, Annette Bening’s portrayal of determined swimmer Diana Nyad in the sports-biopic Nyad is full of vim, power and emotion as she bounces off co-star Jodie Foster. These two Hollywood heavyweights are a joy to watch but there’s no getting around the fact that the film is not as strong as its rivals.
At the risk of sounding like a conspiracist, the Academy does, on occasion, hand out the Oscar to someone whose “turn” it is. This is Bening’s fourth nomination for Best Actress and fifth overall – she’s also received a Best Supporting Actress nod — so she’s more than deserving. So I’m calling it: 2024 is finally her time to shine.
Beth: Emma Stone, if her haul from the Baftas and the Critics’ Choice awards is anything to go by, though I think Gladstone could give her a run for her money.
Ryan Gosling as Ken in Barbie. Photo / Warner Bros.
Karl: If you ask the internet, the win should be a slam dunk for Ryan Gosling and his enthusiastic portrayal of the plastic himbo Ken in Barbie. But I feel it’s unlikely the Academy will recognise a film based on a children’s toy – no matter how subversive and culturally important it may be – beyond a nomination.
And of course, you can never rule out Robert De Niro and his screen intensity, especially when paired with his frequent collaborator, Scorsese. At the risk of sounding grim, they’re both getting on a bit and don’t have too many ceremonies left to attend. The Academy could certainly award him the win as a legend’s last hurrah.
Beth: It’s me, hi, I’m the internet, it’s me. My pick for Best Supporting Actor is Ryan Gosling – he threw every last ounce of his Kenergy into his performance, from the vigorous dance numbers to the Critics’ Choice award-winning I’m Just Ken. Amid all the serious performances on this list, he’s a breath of fresh air. Someone pass me a brewski beer.
Who will win?
Karl: Hollywood loves nothing more than a great redemption story and Robert Downey Jr has one of the best. He fell from the very top to the very bottom and has since done the work to beat addiction, paid his debt to society and steadily battled his way back up the ladder to become one of the most bankable stars in Tinseltown. Let’s face it, he’s never gonna get an Oscar for Iron-Man. But a co-starring role in one of 2023′s most celebrated and important films? Well, that’s got “win” written all over it.
Beth: Robert Downey Jr or Mark Ruffalo are both shining examples of comeback performances that prove there is life after Marvel movies. But I think the win will ultimately go to RDJ.
Emily Blunt as Kitty Oppenheimer and Cillian Murphy as J. Robert Oppenheimer. Photo / Universal Pictures
Karl: Not only would it be appropriate and deserved if Jodie Foster won the Oscar for her work in Nyad – she’s brilliant in everything – it would also be a win for women over 50 everywhere.
Da’Vine Joy Randolph has a long and impressive list of award wins and nominations but her tear-jerking performance in The Holdovers marks her first recognition from the Academy. The Oscar could very well join the Golden Globe and Bafta awards already sitting on her mantlepiece.
Beth: The Holdovers’ Da’Vine Joy Randolph is the favourite to win the Oscar, and for good reason: her turn as single mother Mary Lamb mourning the loss of her son to the Vietnam War is the emotional heart of the film. But it arguably takes more skill to portray a character who’s difficult to like, and that’s exactly what Emily Blunt did as Oppenheimer’s wife Kitty.
Who will win?
Karl: An Oscar trend that seems unlikely to change is the big sweep. This year most likely belongs to Oppenheimer, which would see Emily Blunt taking the W. That’s not to say it’s a gimme. A lesser actress would not have been able to instil the same level of humanity into Oppenheimer’s acerbic, alcoholic, communist wife. And she took a pay cut to do so. That could very well land her right in the money come award time.
Beth: Emily Blunt. We could very well see an Oppenheimer takeover on Monday.
Karl: While it would be ah-maze-ing if Barbie brought it home, we don’t really fancy its chances for the aforementioned reasons. Poor Things is so weird and unique that it’s probably too far out there for the stuffier members of the Academy. With its 70s flavour, emotional punch and smart humour, The Holdovers is a throwback to the Academy’s glory days and is a total crowd-pleaser, giving it a real shot. And the pointed political commentary, literary roots and intelligent humour of American Fiction makes its chance of winning very real indeed.
Beth: I know there’s no such thing as a tie at the Oscars, but if there was, I’d say Barbenheimer. Is that a cop-out?
Barbie and Oppenheimer lured us back to cinemas last year, inspiring countless costumes, themed parties and fierce debates on social media. But above all, both films reminded us how much we love going to the movies, whether we love dark historical dramas or candy-pink fantasy worlds rooted in nostalgia.
Who will win?
Karl: Oppenheimer. You don’t need to be a nuclear scientist to calculate that Oppenheimer is going to win. It’s an epic thriller about one of humanity’s most terrifying discoveries that’s based on a true story and leaves your head spinning and questioning everything at the end of it. What’s not to love?
Beth: It’s hard to imagine anything other than the ensemble cast of Oppenheimer crowding the Oscars stage for this one.
Martin Scorsese with Leonardo DiCaprio, Lily Gladstone and Robert De Niro on the set of The Killers of the Flower Moon.
Best Director
The nominees
Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest
Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall
Who should win?
Karl: Greta Gerwig for Barbie. Making a splenderiffic technicolour film about feminism and existentialism under the eagle eye of a toy company and their executives while also positively influencing the zeitgeist and making a movie that didn’t completely suck or resemble a corporate cash grab is an Oscar-winning achievement in my book. Shame she wasn’t nominated …
Like De Niro, Scorsese is an old master and Killers of the Flower Moon is an incredibly powerful picture that can’t be overlooked. Will he get a celebratory win or will Academy pass the torch?
Beth: Personally, I’d love to see Triet accept the award for Best Director. Anatomy of a Fall is small-scale and sparing but stands out among the lavish epics like Killers and Oppenheimer.
She’s only the eighth woman to have been nominated and could become the fourth to win it, joining the ranks of Chloé Zhao and our very own Dame Jane Campion. It would ease the pain of Greta Gerwig’s snub slightly.
Who will win?
Karl: I’m picking Christopher Nolan. In an exceptional filmography, Oppenheimer ranks right at the top as one of his best. It’s a big-budget spectacle with brains. Not only did it blow away critics, it also pulled audiences into cinemas in huge numbers at a time when going to the movies was falling out of vogue. It may be about the worst of humanity but I’m thinking Nolan is going to have the best Sunday night of his life.
Beth: I have no doubt that, on the night, Nolan will claim yet another well-deserved Best Director award.
You can follow the NZ Herald live blog on nzherald.co.nz on Monday March 11 from 11am for all things Oscars 2024.
