George MacKay as a British soldier on a mission to save troops in 1917. Photo / Supplied
The New York Times' Carpetbagger columnist has been closely tracking the awards races all season. Here are the movies and stars he expects to win.
1917
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood
Parasite
As your Oscar-pool guru, I would be remiss in predicting any best-picture winner besides 1917. The Sam Mendes-directed war movie has taken top honours from both the Producers and Directors guilds as well the director and drama prizes at the Golden Globes, and that's the sort of awards-season war chest no other contender can compete with. Though it debuted late last year, 1917 is cresting at just the right time: After six weeks of release, it's made more than US$120 million domestically, and it occupied the No. 2 slot at the box office last weekend.
But I still can't shake the feeling that Parasite could pull off an upset, in much the same way Moonlight vaulted over La La Land just three years ago. Bong Joon Ho's widely loved South Korean thriller would be the first foreign-language film to win best picture, and by picking it, voters could help rehabilitate the academy's reputation for being too insular and white. The film's cast members garnered a standing ovation at the Screen Actors Guild Awards even before they won the top prize of the night. Parasite has passion, no doubt.
Is that enough? I'm playing it safe with 1917, but stay tuned: It'll be close.
Sam Mendes, 1917
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Todd Phillips, Joker
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood
Bong Joon Ho, Parasite
Five of the last seven Oscar races have come down to a split in the top two categories, so is it possible that even if 1917 wins best picture, Bong could still be rewarded with the best-director Oscar? Yes, though I wouldn't bet on it: When such a split occurs, the directing winner usually hails from the bigger, more technically audacious film, and that describes Mendes and his long-take war movie to a T.
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes
Oscar voters are drawn to the tangible act of transformation, and though many of the nominees in this category are playing against type — including DiCaprio as a washed-up actor and Banderas as a quiet artist wrestling with pain — there is no more ostentatious act of transformation than Phoenix's wrenching, intensely physical performance as the Joker. Considered by many to be the best actor of his generation, Phoenix has never won an Oscar. That will change Sunday.
Renée Zellweger, Judy
Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
Charlize Theron, Bombshell
Sixteen years after Zellweger was awarded her first Oscar, a supporting-actress trophy for Cold Mountain," she will again return to the winner's circle for playing a down-and-out Judy Garland in the last year of her life. None of the other contenders ever amassed enough momentum to truly compete with Zellweger, who's been sitting pretty as the favorite all season. She'll now become the 21st woman to win more than one Oscar for acting.
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood
Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighbourhood
Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Joe Pesci, The Irishman
Though the 56-year-old Pitt already possesses an Oscar for producing the best-picture winner 12 Years a Slave, he has never won an Academy Award for acting, and his confident performance in Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood offers a full-throttle testimonial to his star power. After charming and unexpectedly funny acceptance speeches at the Golden Globes and Screen Actors Guild Awards, there's no way Pitt goes home on Oscar night empty-handed. Don't you want to know what he'll say?
Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell
Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit
Florence Pugh, Little Women"
Margot Robbie, Bombshell
Dern has a clear path to victory here: The only supporting-actress contender who had earned a comparable amount of buzz was Hustlers star Jennifer Lopez, and she didn't even make the list of five nominees. For voters who enjoyed Marriage Story, a vote for Dern ensures the movie won't go home empty-handed, and the 52-year-old actress is an enormously well-liked figure enjoying the sort of career resurgence that Oscar is always eager to reward.
Parasite, Bong Joon Ho, Han Jin Won
Knives Out, Rian Johnson
Marriage Story, Noah Baumbach
1917, Sam Mendes and Krysty Wilson-Cairns
Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood, Quentin Tarantino
Tarantino has won the original-screenplay Oscar twice before, so he can't be counted out here. Still, the path to best picture almost always goes through one of the screenplay categories, and Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood has lost much of its momentum for the top award. The best-picture front-runner 1917 is probably too sparse a screenplay to win in this category, so I expect the win will go to twisty Parasite, the night's other big contender for the top Oscar.
Jojo Rabbit, Taika Waititi
The Irishman, Steven Zaillian
Joker, Todd Phillips, Scott Silver
Little Women, Greta Gerwig
The Two Popes, Anthony McCarten
Oscar voters caught a lot of flak when Gerwig failed to make the best-director race, and they may be tempted to make it up to her here. Still, I'd give the slim edge to Waititi, who won the Writers Guild Award in this category and whose performance in his own movie — as a jokey Adolf Hitler, no less — only lends him further star power that should put him over the top.
Parasite, South Korea
Corpus Christi, Poland
Honeyland, North Macedonia
Les Misérables, France
Pain and Glory, Spain
Outside of the acting categories, this is one of the most foregone conclusions of the night: Parasite will surely prevail, giving South Korea its first victory in this Oscar race. The only question is whether some voters will deem this win sufficient, and then go on to choose a different movie in the best-picture category.
Toy Story 4
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
I Lost My Body
Klaus
Missing Link
Oscar voters are loath to recognize a sequel in this category, and the last one to win was Toy Story 3, which may slow their enthusiasm for rewarding Pixar once more. Still, the field is scattered: Missing Link won the Golden Globe, Klaus swept the Annie awards, and Netflix's I Lost My Body has highbrow fans, too. With votes all over the place and no singular, widely seen alternative to back, Toy Story 4 is well-positioned to win.
American Factory
The Cave
The Edge of Democracy
For Sama
Honeyland
Honeyland, about a beekeeper in North Macedonia, pulled off an impressive double nomination for documentary feature and international film. Still, this category is packed with powerhouse social-issues dramas, and the favorite has to be American Factory, which chronicles a culture clash between Chinese industrialists and hard-up American workers. The film has received a strong push from Netflix and counts no less than Barack and Michelle Obama among its backers.
1917
Avengers: Endgame
The Irishman
The Lion King
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
Best-picture contenders typically have the edge over tentpole fare in this category, so while The Lion King certainly boasts the most effects, the ultimate contest should come down to The Irishman and its de-aging technology vs. the more seamless wartime enhancements of 1917. Since Robert De Niro's youthful CGI makeover came in for some criticism, I suspect voters will choose 1917.
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Parasite
Parasite could pull this out if voters remember all those masterful sequences that track multiple character arcs as the suspense builds and builds, and if the film wins in this category, that would be a boon for its best-picture chances. But Ford v Ferrari is the obvious choice here, since its racing sequences would be nothing without fast and precise editing.
Joker, Hildur Gudnadottir
Little Women, Alexandre Desplat
Marriage Story, Randy Newman
1917, Thomas Newman
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, John Williams
Thomas Newman has been nominated in this category 14 times without a win, and though 1917 could earn the most Oscars of the night, I don't think its score will triumph. At least Newman won't lose to his cousin Randy, the composer for Marriage Story: Instead, both Newmans will probably fall to Golden Globe and BAFTA winner Gudnadottir, whose striking compositions for Joker give a voice to the main character's madness.
(I'm Gonna) Love Me Again, Rocketman
I Can't Let You Throw Yourself Away, Toy Story 4
I'm Standing With You, Breakthrough
Into the Unknown, Frozen 2
Stand Up, Harriet
Let It Go triumphed in this category seven years ago, but can the new Idina Menzel power ballad from Frozen 2 win the same Oscar? It will face strong competition from Elton John's end-credits Rocketman song, sung with the film's star, Taron Egerton. Their duet, (I'm Gonna) Love Me Again, has already won the Golden Globe, and the snub of Frozen 2 in the animated-film category suggests that voters aren't eager to rubber-stamp a retread. In a close race, I'd give this one to Elton.
1917
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood
Parasite
This is one of the night's trickiest three-way races. Parasite gave us the most memorable location of the year with the ultramodern Park house, but contemporary films only win in this category when they're impressively futuristic (Black Panther) or self-consciously retro (La La Land). Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood masterfully recreates 1969 Los Angeles, but the film seems to have lost awards momentum. 1917 turns every new location into a striking set piece and the camera's constancy allows plenty of time to explore those sets, so that's my pick, even though I hope Parasite can pull it off.
1917, Roger Deakins
The Irishman, Rodrigo Prieto
Joker, Lawrence Sher
The Lighthouse, Jarin Blaschke
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Robert Richardson
For more than two decades, Deakins was one of Oscar's most famous bridesmaids, but now that he's in, he's really in: After winning his first Academy Award, for Blade Runner 2049, just two years ago, the veteran cinematographer will earn a second statuette, for his fluid work on 1917. If all those complicated long takes weren't enough to clinch it for Deakins, the bravura nighttime sequence halfway through the film surely would be.
Little Women
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood
With the recent exception of the world-building winners Black Panther and Mad Max: Fury Road, this Oscar almost always goes to a period film set in the distant past. That nixes Joker, The Irishman and Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood, as films set in the 1960s and '70s haven't scored here since ... well, the 1960s and '70s. In the faceoff between the colourful Jojo Rabbit, which won with the Costume Designers Guild, and BAFTA's choice, Little Women, I'm picking the latter: When in doubt, go with the one that has the most frocks.
Bombshell
Joker
Judy
Maleficent: Mistress of Evil
1917
It's the first time that this category has expanded the number of nominees to five from the traditional three, but that hardly makes the contest any less of a blowout: Bombshell is guaranteed to win for its uncanny, prosthetics-aided transformation of Charlize Theron into angular Fox News anchor Megyn Kelly.
1917
Ad Astra
Ford v Ferrari
Joker
Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood
1917 seeks to place the viewer in the same impossible situations as its protagonists, and all those you-are-there long takes wouldn't work half as well without a top-tier soundscape. Whizzing bullets, roaring waterfalls, the fairway footsteps of a potential friend or foe: 1917 has everything it needs to succeed here. War films and best-picture nominees are typically the best positioned in this category, and 1917 is both.
1917
Ford v Ferrari
Joker
Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
An idea was recently floated within the academy to combine both sound categories because many voters still don't understand the difference between them. For the record: Sound editing has more to do with the creation of sounds, while sound mixing is about weaving those disparate sounds together. Whether voters know that or not, they will almost certainly pick 1917 to prevail in both races.
Hair Love
Dcera
Kitbull
Memorable
Sister
The two heaviest hitters here are Pixar's Kitbull, which tracks an alley cat's bond with an abused pit bull, and Sony's Hair Love, about an African American father struggling to do his young daughter's hair. Kitbull benefits from being a little rougher around the edges than your usual Pixar short, but adorable animals are still a familiar sight in this category, and the specificity of Hair Love distinguishes it as a fresher pick.
The Neighbours' Window
Brotherhood
Nefta Football Club
Saria
A Sister
Last year's winner in this category, Skin, was an English-language short with recognisable actors that culminated in an obvious but effective twist. That pretty much describes this year's front-runner, The Neighbours' Window, which stars Tony nominee Maria Dizzia as a harried New York mom who envies the young, glamorous couple in the apartment across the way until ... well, I won't spoil it. Though I found the eventual twist rather trite, it's exactly the sort of thing that clicks with Oscar voters, and Dizzia is so committed that you're inclined to just go with it.
Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (if You're a Girl)
In the Absence
Life Overtakes Me
St. Louis Superman
Walk Run Cha-Cha
Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (if You're a Girl) has the best title in the field and also the best odds: This charmer about a skating school for young girls in Afghanistan is politically relevant enough to score with Oscar voters, but even more crucially, it sends the viewer out with a smile.
Written by: Kyle Buchanan
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'I found out about it this morning.' (This article contains spoilers).