Ryan Gosling, right, and Emma Stone in a scene from, 'La La Land'. The actors and movie are front-runners in today's Academy Awards. Photo / Supplied
Ryan Gosling, right, and Emma Stone in a scene from, 'La La Land'. The actors and movie are front-runners in today's Academy Awards. Photo / Supplied
It's been a brilliant year in film and this year the Oscars actually, more or less, reflect in the best in cinema.
A year after the "Oscars so white" controversy, there's a diversity of stories and faces in the running for Hollywood's top honour, led by La La Land with a tied record 14 nominations, followed by Moonlight and Arrival with eight each.
So who should you put down in your office ballot?
BEST PICTURE Arrival Fences Hacksaw Ridge Hell or High Water Hidden Figures La La Land Lion Manchester by the Sea Moonlight
There's no doubt that La La Land is the runaway favourite this year, expected to sweep through the awards and nab almost every major category including Best Picture. A love letter to Hollywood, the musical is the darling of the industry with its joyful story of those who dared to dream. And Hollywood loves nothing more than to honour something that honours creatives - Chicago, Birdman and The Artist are recent Best Picture examples. The only real threat to La La Land's total dominance is Moonlight, a beautiful portrait of a young, gay black man growing up in the Florida projects. Moonlight is the better film - better performances, better writing and better characterisation - but it's hard to stop the La La Land juggernaut. If La La Land doesn't win, it'll be the biggest upset since Brokeback Mountain lost in 2006. Will win: La La Land Should win: Moonlight Could win: Manchester by the Sea
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge Ryan Gosling, La La Land Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic Denzel Washington, Fences
In what is the tightest race in this year's Oscars, Best Actor comes down to two men: Casey Affleck and Denzel Washington. Affleck had the early momentum, cleaning up the critics' awards but the spanner came in the form of the Screen Actors' Guild Awards where Washington unexpectedly won. Affleck is also being dogged by years-old sexual harassment allegations which resurfaced as the Oscar voting neared. Enthusiasm for scandal-tainted frontrunner nominees is often dulled, most recently Russell Crowe and Eddie Murphy. Washington also is beloved in Hollywood for his storied career and has previously picked up two Oscars (Glory and Training Day). He may also get some extra love because he pulled double duty on Fences which was his directorial debut. The spoiler is if Ryan Gosling gets carried along on a La La Land sweep. Will win: Denzel Washington Should win: Casey Affleck Could win: Ryan Gosling
Emma Stone is favoured to win Best Actress. Photo / AP
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE Isabelle Huppert, Elle Ruth Negga, Loving Natalie Portman, Jackie Emma Stone, La La Land Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
Emma Stone is the easy favourite to win here, dominating all the lead-up awards including the Golden Globe, BAFTA and SAG. Her triple threat performance as dreamer Mia in La La Land was warm and enchanting, culminating in the heart-wrenching "Audition" song solo. There's always a chance French actor Isabelle Huppert could pull it off for her role as a rape victim - she's very respected in the industry - and Natalie Portman's pained Jackie O has been widely lauded. Will win: Emma Stone Should win: Emma Stone Could win: Isabelle Huppert
Mahershala Ali as Juan with Chiron, the boy, played by Alex R. Hibbert. Photo / Supplied
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE Mahershala Ali, Moonlight Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea Dev Patel, Lion Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals
Even though he went home empty-handed at the Golden Globes and at the BAFTAs, this award is Mahershala Ali's to lose. His nuanced and thoughtful performance as Juan in Moonlight was felt all the way through Barry Jenkins' incredible film, despite only being present in the first third. Ali, who's had a bumper year, really is a class act. Dev Patel, who won the BAFTA, has had a late surge but the Brits do like to reward their own and while Jeff Bridges is always a sentimental favourite, Ali should have this in the bag. Will win: Mahershala Ali Should win: Mahershala Ali Could win: Jeff Bridges
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE Viola Davis, Fences Naomie Harris, Moonlight Nicole Kidman, Lion Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
"It's an honour just to be nominated" is probably the mantra of everyone not named Viola Davis in this category. Davis is considered to be such a lock for the win, as soon as nominations were announced, bookies had her odds at $1.03. That's what you call a shoo-in. While Davis should really be competing in the leading role category (much like last year's winner Alicia Vikander for The Danish Girl), her performance was undeniably powerful. Michelle Williams is the potential (massive) upset - this is her fourth nomination. Will win: Viola Davis Should win: Viola Davis Could win: Michelle Williams
Director Mel Gibson attends the premiere of 'Hacksaw Ridge'. Photo / Getty Images
DIRECTING Denis Villeneuve, Arrival Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge Damien Chazelle, La La Land Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
The Best Picture and Best Director Oscars are usually doled out as a pair but it's been split more often than not in recent years. There's a chance that Academy voters will give La La Land the big gong and bestow the directing statue on Barry Jenkins as an almost consolation prize to recognise his considerable accomplishment in Moonlight. Chazelle and Jenkins are both considered wunderkinds at 32 and 37 years old respectively and it won't be the last time either man will feature here again. Will win: Damien Chazelle Should win: Barry Jenkins Could win: Kenneth Lonergan
WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY) Eric Heisserer, Arrival August Wilson, Fences Allison Schroeder and Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures Luke Davies, Lion Barry Jenkins and Tarell Alvin McCraney, Moonlight
Adapted screenplay is one of the few instances La La Land can't gazump Moonlight on Oscars night. "Adapted" from an unproduced play by Tarell Alvin McCraney, Moonlight's screenplay etched out fully formed characters despite very little dialogue. It also won the big prize at the Writers Guild Award in the original category while Arrival won the WGA's adapted honour. Australian Luke Davies won the BAFTA adapted screenplay award for Lion but it wasn't competing against Moonlight which was nominated in the original category there. Will win: Moonlight Should win: Moonlight Could win: Arrival
WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY) Taylor Sheridan, Hell or High Water Damien Chazelle, La La Land Yorgos Lanthimos and Efthimis Filippou, The Lobster Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea Mike Mills, 20th Century Women
Kenneth Lonergan will probably win the original screenplay category for Manchester by the Sea, a tour de force in film writing. A poignant movie about grief in its different forms, Lonergan was able to imbue the script with levity despite its heavy subject. It's also the category most likely to give Manchester its Oscar from six nominations if Casey Affleck is snubbed. La La Land may come up from behind if it's a La La Land lovefest but out of all the nominees here, it's probably the weakest script. So while Manchester's biggest competition comes from La La Land, it should be from The Lobster, a wildly inventive story about the societal pressures of being coupled off. Could win: La La Land Should win: The Lobster Will win: Manchester by the Sea
WATCH THIS SPACE Original Song: La La Land has two songs ("City of Stars", "Audition") in the race which could split the vote, making the way for "How Far I'll Go" from Moana to pick up the gong. Lin-Manuel Miranda, who wrote all the songs in Moana, is hugely popular because of Hamilton and if he wins, he'll become the youngest person to EGOT (winning a competitive Emmy, Grammy, Oscar and Tony Award), joining an exclusive club of 12.
Animated Feature Film: Zootopia is likely to take home the Oscar for its clever story about diversity and political fear campaigns, executed in a way that appealed to both adults and children. Plus, it's got that Disney and Pixar magic (and lobbying heft) behind it. The divinely beautiful Kubo and the Two Strings, which won the BAFTA, is the biggest threat to Zootopia with its mystical fairy tale and don't discount The Red Turtle because Oscar voters love traditional hand-drawn animation.
Foreign Language: German film Toni Erdmann had the early momentum going in but may have been overtaken by political forces. Iranian film The Salesman is likely to have benefited from the controversy surrounding Donald Trump's travel ban when its director Asghar Farhadi (previously an Oscar winner for A Separation) was barred from attending the ceremony. The ban has since been struck down by the courts but The Salesman would've already received a considerable bump from voters eager to send a message to The White House. Australian film Tanna is also nominated in this category but is a long shot.
Documentary (Feature): Three out of the five nominees in this category tell African-American stories with the well-received OJ: Made in America (an ESPN series that has curiously qualified for both Oscar and Emmy races) in the lead. But voters may want to reward Ava Duvernay for 13th after being overlooked a few years back for Selma. A documentary that really packs a punch, 13th is also a searing indictment of the American prison system and a win would give Netflix its first Oscar.
Sound Mixing: Kevin O'Connell currently holds the record for the most Oscar nominations without a win at 21 but he should finally make it to the podium this year for Hacksaw Ridge with the war epic easily the favourite in both sound categories.
