Let's face it, the Big Day Out line-up is patchy. There are many reasons for this, I'm sure, but here's a theory: the pool of bands is more diluted these days because of the number of other annual music festivals happening in Australia and New Zealand.
Here we've got the likes of Rhythm and Vines in Gisborne, and Australian one-day festival Laneway has just announced its inaugural show at Auckland's Britomart Square on February 1; both attract international acts.
Meanwhile, over in Oz there are many festivals vying for the market the Big Day Out has had to itself for so many years. There's Splendour in the Grass, the V Festival, the dance-oriented Parklife, and I reckon February's Soundwave Festival has nicked a few major drawcards from the BDO.
Soundwave started in 2007 with a metal-rock bent, but in recent years has added a few more mainstream acts to its line-up, and next year it has snared the prize signings of reunited acts Faith No More and Jane's Addiction - surely two sitters for a Big Day Out bill.
I have to point out that next year's BDO line-up has had no bearing on sales in Australia because all shows sold out in record time - and a second Sydney show was added (which also sold out) for only the second time in the festival's 18-year history. However, that's not saying much because the BDO always sells out across the Tasman.
New Zealand is a different story, and rarely does it sell out before the day of the concert. Maybe we Kiwis need the draw of a big name headliner to get us through the gate? Or maybe it's simply a case of that ticket-buying lethargy that we are famous for. There's also another reason the BDO line-up is a little lacking.
Gone are the days when big-name, top-tier acts like Metallica, AC/DC or Coldplay were likely to headline festivals - unless you're talking big British ones like Reading and Leeds - because they come to New Zealand and do their own shows.
A band like AC/DC, who admittedly have never played a Big Day Out, will get more than 60,000 punters at their Western Springs show in February alone - that's a good chunk more than the capacity at BDO.
Next year's BDO headliners Muse are a great band, and have a loyal following here, but hardly a rabid and passionate fanbase like past headliners Metallica, Rage Against the Machine, or even Tool.
And as yet - because there are a couple more Big Day Out announcements to come - there's no act to get the New Zealand oldies in like Neil Young did earlier this year and Iggy and the Stooges did in 2006.
In saying all this, the Big Day Out remains my favourite festival of all the local ones, not just because it's on my back doorstep, but because no other festival line-up brings together as many international acts that I would be keen to check out, all in one place.
This year I will be throwing goats to Mastodon (they are an immense live force); The Mars Volta, Kasabian, Lily Allen, and Dizzee Rascal (all of whom have been here before but are always a hoot); the Horrors; and yes, I will be checking out Muse's pomp rock once again.
The Big Day Out is still the big daddy of New Zealand music festivals, it's just that he's not getting it all his own way now. And grabbing a stellar headliner and a mind-blowing complement of other bands is going to get harder in the future.
<i>Scott Kara</i>: So many big days out
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