Y2K 'hype' cost billions say researchers

By CHRIS BARTON

Overstating the effects of the Y2K bug cost $US70 billion ($134 billion) worldwide, says market research company International Data Corporation (IDC).

"The hype generated over Y2K came at a price in terms of both the costs of contingency planning and overspending on fixing computer systems," said John Gantz, IDC chief research officer and Y2K Project Magellan team leader.

But Basil Logan, chairman of the New Zealand Y2K Readiness Commission, rejected the assertion as flawed logic.

He said IDC's assessment was based on looking at the impact of Y2K in countries such as Russia, Bulgaria and Vietnam rather than the United States, Britain and New Zealand.

"Those societies and economies are much less dependent on technology than we are."

Mr Logan said the commission had never believed in the extreme Y2K doomsayers' scenarios, but had always considered there was a risk that needed to be properly managed.

Businesses and the public alike assessed the risk, then decided how much to spend or what action to take.

"Complaining after the event is like saying: 'I wasted my fire premium because my house didn't burn down'."

IDC said that two years ago it was advising that Y2K would not be catastrophic or lead to recession.

More recently, while Government agencies were advising the public to stock up on food and water, it was telling clients the economic impact of Y2K would be minimal.

Its cost estimates are part of Project Magellan, a research effort using a survey of 10,000 organisations in 17 countries, IDC statistics on the computerisation of 52 countries, and analyst input on the impact of Y2K in more than 40 countries.