Worldwide food demand to soar

If the predictions of visiting US professor Robert Thompson are correct, then the primary sector has a bright future.

He is forecasting a doubling of global demand for food by 2050.

But unlike many doomsayers, he is confident that the world's agriculture producers can rise to the challenge.

Thompson, who is professor of agricultural policy at the University of Illinois, serves at the coal face of agricultural trade policy development, in the United States and at the principal world negotiating tables, acting as chair of the International Food and Agricultural Trade Policy Council. From 1998 until 2002, he was rural development director at the World Bank.

At the weekend, he delivered the keynote address at the Nuffield International Conference in Rotorua. The conference had the theme: World Agriculture 2050.

"My message is one of optimism for the future of world agriculture and for efficient farmers wherever they are in the world," Thompson said. He estimates that only half of the growth in food demand will come from the rising global population.

It is the other half of the growth that will most interest New Zealand farmers.

That would be driven by rising incomes in the developing nations, he said.

With better incomes will come more demand for higher value foods such as dairy and meat.

Economic growth that occurs in the developing countries was vital to nations like New Zealand.

"If all the gains go to the rich countries, who are already satiated for food, then you won't be selling any more raw agricultural products as a result."

Where there was tremendous opportunity was with the three billion people living on less the US$2 a day. Nearly one billion people of those people are actually under nourished. "Meaning they go to bed hungry," he said. "So you have incredible potential for the growth in the consumption of food as long as we can engage those three billion in economic growth that lifts them out of there poverty."

The cynics needs look no further than to the Chinese economic miracle.

"We've all been watching China. We've seen an explosion in consumption of lifestyle products and foods like milk as per capita income has grown," Thompson said.

"But when you look at the numbers, 52 per cent of Chinese live on less than US$2 a day. That means everything you've seen so far in China has happened in only half the country."

India has 500 million people living on less than US$1 a day.

And so the list goes on. Of the world's developing regions only Africa remains deeply problematic.

A combination of problems including poor soil, political corruption and the HIV epidemic make it sadly inevitable that Africa will still be relying on food aid of some sort in 2050, Thompson said. But with the right aid, technology can help overcome issues like bad soil types.

Brazil is an example of a country which has developed a hugely important economic resource - its soybean industry - where it would previously have been impossible.

Advances in the management of tropical soils and soybean breeding had combined to make the industry possible, he said.

Brazil and the other South American countries were likely to dramatically boost output in the next 50 years, as were new central European states such as the Ukraine.

But Thompson's message is that we shouldn't fear this competition.

If these countries can come to the economic party then they will bring with them millions of consumers and there is potential for us all to benefit.