Just a few weeks before an election, replace an unpopular party leader with a younger, charismatic woman. The older man, once certain to win, has no idea how to respond.
American commentators are wondering how long Kamala Harris can maintain her “honeymoon”. We know the answer to that too. It is not a honeymoon, it is mania. With the support of a sympathetic media, mania can last years and certainly the 35 days until early voting in some states and the 75 days until election day.
As the Democrats are holding their convention, Harris will dominate the news for another week. The average bounce from a convention is around 5%, which would translate into a commanding lead.
With the help of the President and two ex-Presidents, Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, the convention is setting the agenda. Harris is having another week to introduce herself.
Once an image is established, it is hard to change. The Republicans do not have enough time to raise doubts about her character. Like Dame Jacinda Ardern, Harris’ lack of a record means there is less to attack.
History is on Harris’ side. A third of all Presidents were Vice-Presidents. Only two defeated Presidents have then been re-elected. As in New Zealand, defeated leaders rarely make a comeback.
The vice-presidency is a great advantage. All prestige and no responsibility. The Republicans are trying to tie Harris to an unpopular administration, but no one believes that the Vice-President was in charge.
It is not all lost for Trump. Trump’s support has not dropped. When independent candidates are included in the polls, his support remains around 45%. During Jacindamania, National retained its support at 45%.
It is not necessary for Trump to win the popular vote. Trump has never won the popular vote. The presidency is decided by the Electoral College. A month ago, Trump had a comfortable lead in the swing states that decide elections. Now, according to voting forecaster FiveThirtyEight, Harris is ahead in crucial rust belt states.
If Trump loses, historians will point to strategic mistakes made well before the election. Like Sir Bill English, who failed to realise National cannot win a MMP election on its own, Trump has failed to realise his base is not enough.
Trump should have followed Ronald Reagan’s example. Reagan made his biggest primary challenger, George Bush, his Vice-President. If Trump had chosen his biggest rival, Nikki Haley, he would have extended the ticket’s appeal to independents and women voters.
A significant election issue is a woman’s right to choose. Trump’s Supreme Court picks overturned Roe v Wade. Machiavelli warned the Prince that people who have a right taken away never forgive.
The key issue in every election is the economy. Up to 12% more voters think Trump is better on the economy. The commentators think that if Trump stopped personal attacks and talked about the economy, he would win.
Maybe not. No voter thought that Ardern knew more about the economy than English, a long-time Finance Minister. The electorate thought that Mitt Romney was better on the economy than Obama.
There is a polling question that commentators often overlook. “Who do you think cares about you”? Harris is campaigning by saying she knows what it is like to struggle, to rent, to work in McDonald’s to get through school. She is ahead in the “who cares about you?” poll.
Ardern demonstrated that empathy is an electoral winner.
A massive majority of Americans did not want to choose between two octogenarians. Having the choice of a younger energetic candidate has flipped the election. Trump is now the old, incumbent candidate.
While the last month proves nothing is certain in politics, Trump now needs to win the presidential debate. Having participated in many debates, I know it is impossible to win a debate against a well-prepared opponent. Trump did not win the debate with Joe Biden. Biden lost when it was clear that he is cognitively impaired.
The commentators always declare the debate winner to be the candidate who does better than expected. English was expected to win. When he could not score a “knockout”, Ardern was declared the debate winner. Trump is expected to win the presidential debate. When Trump cannot score a “knockout”, Harris will be declared the winner.
Only a mistake by Harris, like Ardern’s “captain’s call” supporting capital gains taxes, can stop Kamalamania sweeping the election.
There is a lesson for our two Christophers. Labour could replace their unpopular leader, Chris Hipkins, just weeks from the next election with an empathetic, able young woman and sweep Christopher Luxon away in Barbaramania.
