US stocks: Markets to reopen Monday

8.45 am

NEW YORK - United States stock markets will reopen for business on Monday (US time), nearly a week after an attack pulverised the World Trade Center, killing perhaps thousands in the world's financial centre and causing the longest shutdown in trading since the outbreak of World War I.

The world's biggest stock markets, including the New York Stock Exchange, the Nasdaq and the American Stock Exchange, said they would remain shut on Friday, test their vast web of networks and equipment on Saturday and resume trading on Monday at 9:30 am EDT should the trial runs go well.

"We will make sure the system is fully tested, or we will not bring it back up," said Nasdaq chief executive Hardwick Simmons at a press conference.

Thousands were still missing as rescue crews crawled over the wreckage of the collapsed Trade Center's two 110-story towers, where 40,000 people once worked.

The shutdown will allow Wall Street's 180,000 work force -- traders, investors, economists and support staff -- to adjust to the shock of an attack likened to the bombing of Pearl Harbor in 1941. President Bush declared Friday a day of "prayer and remembrance" and urged people to attend services.

"I would far prefer to see it start on Monday," said Donna Van Vlack, director of trading at Brandywine Asset Management, adding she lost many friends in the attacks. "I would prefer everybody have the weekend to digest what is going on and think about what's going on, rationalise what's going on and then make a determination of which way to go."

The landmark NYSE building, just two blocks away from the mangled metal and smoking rubble of the Trade Center complex, was cordoned off with the rest of lower Manhattan. A plume of smoke emanating from the ruins of the financial district hung over a skyline void of its two tallest skyscrapers.

"We have had an unimaginable loss in human capital in the financial district," said Alan Ackerman, a market strategist at brokerage Fahnestock & Co. "None of us know how much that will affect things."

Investment strategists initially predicted a gut-wrenching tumble once stocks open, but now are becoming more optimistic. The Toronto Stock Exchange -- the only North American stock market to open on Thursday -- rose nearly one per cent.

European markets, which sank on Tuesday as hijacked aircraft attacked the twin towers and the Pentagon outside of Washington, on Thursday posted a second day of modest gains.

"A lot of the uncertainty about this is starting to dissipate -- there is a light at the end of the tunnel for us," said Arthur Hogan, chief market analyst at brokerage Jefferies & Co. "The fact that is taking longer than people thought to reopen is better. We will get less of a panic. It will give us time to see how this financially affects us. I think it will be lot less emotional and more rational."

Hampering a return to trading are the destruction of the Verizon Communications telecom centre in lower Manhattan and underground cables hurt by the toppling twin towers -- equivalent to several "minor earthquakes," said NYSE Chairman Richard Grasso said on Wednesday.

When trading does resume, many analysts have predicted a rocky start as Wall Street faces investor uncertainty and possible system glitches. The broad US market gauge, the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, has already fallen to near three-year lows on Friday's news that the US unemployment rate jumped to a four-year high.

"Initially, we are going to have volatility," Ackerman said. "People who watch charts can throw them up in the air, because the charts will be meaningless. There will be so much disparity in the prices."

Although many strategists felt there will be weakness at the opening, others aren't so sure.

The Toronto Stock Exchange was up following a two-day halt in trading. Typical safe havens like gold and oil issues lost ground during the session, while riskier stocks like technology and banks rose -- giving the impression that investors remained calm.

"There are a number reasons that I don't believe things will be that bad," said Hugh Johnson, chief investment officer at First Albany Corp. "We have moved beyond the emotional stage when investors are very panicky. And we have talked to a number institutional investors and the feedback is that if there is any meaningful weakness in the market, they will be buyers. They feel the market is undervalued."

European markets also offered hope that American markets would avoid severe drops. A bounce in insurers propped up European shares. The pan-European Eurotop 300 blue-chip index shook off its initial weakness and rose 0.9 per cent, though the benchmark was still at levels seen in late 1998. The Euro Stoxx 50 index added 1.01 per cent.

Asia stock markets ended mixed on Thursday. Asian markets digested the news for the first time on Wednesday and fell across the board. Japan's Nikkei average had fallen below the key level of 10,000 for the first time in 17 years.

Meanwhile, American companies themselves are pausing in shock to digest the tragedy and show respect for the thousands feared dead. Business announcements are just trickling in, but the activity will heat up again.

Software giant Oracle Corp. said it would report its results as scheduled late Thursday. Its forecasts could further shape the market's performance when trading does resumes.

"I don't think the numbers are that important," Johnson said "I think what they say about business is important. It's the issue of visibility."

Trading in US government debt resumed on Thursday. Most US Treasuries were higher in anticipation of further Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts. The central bank has already slashed rates seven times to perk the sluggish US economy.

- REUTERS

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