Both United States presidential candidates to succeed Bill Clinton are advocates of free trade, which could bode well for those New Zealanders calling for a more open US market, says a visiting US foreign policy lecturer.
But Professor James McCormick, of Iowa State University, says the reality of congressional politics and
the American electorate means that, without a major polarising issue, nothing could be expected to change quickly in US trade policy.
Hosted by the Institute of International Affairs and the US Embassy, Professor McCormick is touring New Zealand to talk about life after Bill Clinton.
He said that New Zealanders with an interest in future relations with the US should watch the congressional election result just as closely as the presidential race.
This was because Democrat Al Gore and Republican George W. Bush, who were both inclined towards free trade and a more internationalist position, faced strong restraints from Congress.
"I think Gore has a problem in that a Democratic Congress would be more protectionist in the free trade area, and also more cautious in some other international relations fields," said Professor McCormick.
He said newly elected Democrats would owe their allegiance to unions.
"If the Republicans gain control, they will still probably be free traders, but they will be more constraining in international political and military areas.
"Republicans have generally been concerned about some of the US commitments and involvement internationally."
The position of New Zealand's lamb trade with the United States was one of "interest group" politics, where a powerful senator who had helped put a President in office had access to the White House and was responding to his own electors.
The American ship of state was a gargantuan edifice which needed a huge push to turn it quickly, he said.
This was particularly so today with the strong, guiding influence of a major threat from the Soviet Union gone, and the potential for the US to become more inward-looking.
Professor McCormick believed the US had been understanding of the New Zealand position regarding the doomed F-16 fighter jets deal, but there was still an underlying desire for reassurance that this country would pull its weight in regional security.
- NZPA
