First NZ Capital analysts Arie Dekker and Grant Lowe trimmed their target price for the stock this week to 60 cents from 82 cents. They rated the stock 'outperform' based on the valuation, while noting it's a speculative rating until Metroglass addresses its balance sheet.
In a note to clients this week, Dekker and Lowe said Metroglass still has a strong New Zealand position to fend off the new rival and improving its service and strengthening the balance sheet could provide upside for investors willing to take the risk. They estimate the dividend could be suspended for as long as three years.
Bain bought into Metroglass at a price-to-earnings ratio of four times, compared to the average 16.9 times across the wider S&P/NZX All Index.
Metroglass's main rival in New Zealand - Viridian Glass - is also facing an ownership change. ASX-listed CSR today said it will sell Viridian to private equity firm Crescent Capital for A$155 million ($165m).
Crescent was among the owners of Metroglass when it went public in 2014, raising $244.2m. About $230m of that was used to buy the firm's assets from the private equity firms and senior management. Those owners included Crescent, Anchorage Capital, JP Morgan, WestLB and Bain
Metroglass changed ownership in 2012 after an earlier private equity owner - Catalyst Investment Managers - was ousted by its lenders, who took control of the company when the last residential property downturn made it hard for the firm to meet the interest payments on what was a highly-leveraged acquisition.