The advanced 8-ton payload class Neutron launch vehicle is designed to transform space access by delivering reliable and cost-effective launch services for satellite mega-constellations, deep space missions and human spaceflight. Video / Rocket Lab
Rocket Lab could speed the development of its next rocket after the invasion of Ukraine effectively ended commercial business for Russia's Soyuz medium-lift rocket, CEO Peter Beck says.
The Kiwi-American had been planning to launch a single Neutron in 2024.
Now it is exploring ways to accelerate production to producethree.
Beck has called the rocket, which will be much larger than the Electron, "an absolute beast". He says his company has the capital to launch three Neutrons in just a little over two years' time.
Some of the US$750 million Rocket Lab raised with its Nasdaq listing was pegged for the Neutron - which will be crew-capable, and able to lift 8000kg into low-Earth orbit (to the Electron's 300kg).
And in September, Rocket Lab secured US$24.4m ($34m) from the US Air Force's new Space Force division to develop the Neutron's upper stage of its Neutron rocket (and up to US$70m more is in the offing after an expanded defence spending bill was passed by the US Congress on March 13).
Additionally, the US state of Virginia - which will host the Neutron's launchpad - has chipped in with US$45m ($69m) worth of subsidies for a new Rocket Lab plant that will manufacture the larger rocket and house a new mission control facility.
Since the retirement of Nasa's Space Shuttle in 2011, the Soyuz has played a key role ferrying astronauts and supplies to the International Space Station for the US and other countries (although over the past 14 months, SpaceX's Crew Dragon has also helped fill the breach).
Russia's invasion of Ukraine left US astronaut Mark Vande Hei potentially stranded on the ISS. Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly threatened to leave him behind when a Soyuz flight arrives on March 30 to return Vande Hei and two Russian cosmonauts to Earth.
The Neutron - seen here against Rocket Lab's existing Electron, will be able to take an 8-tonne payload or crew of astronauts into low Earth orbit. Image / Supplied
It now seems that Russia's space agency will honour its commitment to return all three. But even if so, it is not clear how Vande Hei will get out of Kazakhstan, where the Soyuz is due to land.
But even if the Russians do play ball, Soyuz is set to be hit by sanctions.
US President Joe Biden said on February 24: "We estimate that we'll cut off more than half of Russia's high-tech imports. That will strike a blow to their ability to continue to modernise their military. It'll degrade their aerospace industry, including their space programme."
Biden's comments effectively put a freeze on future Soyuz contracts with Nasa, and private aerospace players in the West.
A lot more than one stranded astronaut
Although Vande Hei's potential stranding has hogged headlines, Beck told the Herald that the impact of the Ukraine crisis was far more sweeping.
"Almost overnight many commercial and government satellite operators from the US and across the globe have suddenly found themselves without a path to space thanks to the suspension of Russian launches. OneWeb's communications constellation is an example of this," the Rocket Lab CEO said.
OneWeb, a satellite broadband startup part-owned by the UK government after a bailout, suspended its Soyuz contract when Russia invaded Ukraine. Earlier this week, it signed an agreement with Elon Musk's SpaceX.
"The long-term viability of Western launch vehicles reliant on Russian and Ukrainian technology has been called into question, placing further strain on launch availability for satellite operators," Beck said.
"As a result, Rocket Lab is experiencing an increase in inquiries from potential customers around Neutron's capabilities and readiness."
The firm has yet to make any decision on whether it will accelerate Neutron production.
But Beck says if it does, it has the capital, and the capacity, to do so.
"Rocket Lab has developed a culture of fierce efficiency and fast-paced R&D, and we're already working at pace to develop Neutron to provide a new launch vehicle delivering assured access to space," he said.
Rocket Lab founder Peter Beck with a mockup of the Neutron's nose cone. Photo / Supplied
"While we're already working to a rapid development timeline, we'll continue to assess how best to meet potential growth in demand in the near term, including whether building more Neutron vehicles in parallel will best support customers."
Whether one or three Neutrons are launched in 2024, Beck said the new rocket will launch exclusively from Rocket Lab's new Launch Complex 2 in Virginia.
The Rocket Lab CEO said New Zealand just doesn't have the industrial scale to produce the Neutron, and that key customers Nasa and the US Department of Defence both wanted launches from US soil.
However, Beck also said that the Electron will continue to launch from Launch Complex 2 at Mahia, and at higher frequency with its recently opened Pad B.
Softer first-quarter guidance - because of the weather
Rocket Lab recently reported a full-year net loss that widened from US$55m to US$117m.
But its full-year revenue grew 420 per cent to US$62.2m as the pandemic crimped its launch schedule in 12 months to December 31, 2021 - but to a much lesser degree than in 2020.
Rocket Lab said its forward-bookings for launches and space services had swelled from US$82m at the end of 2020 to US$241m by December 31 this year (this last day of its financial year).
By March 1, its backlog due stood at US$545m, thanks in large part to a US$143m contract, announced this week, to design and manufacture 17 half-tonne satellites for North American communications network operator GlobalStar, via a subcontract for Toronto-listed MDA.
Rocket Lab shares, which have been caught in the general tech correction, were recently trading at US$8.63.
Morgan Stanley recently initiated coverage with a "overweight" rating and a US$17.00 target.
Overnight, Rocket Lab issued softer guidance for the first quarter, based on bad weather delaying a series of Electron launches for major customer BlackSky.
It now expects revenue in the range of US$42m to $47m from the previously provided US$40m.
