By ADAM GIFFORD
By this time next year you may well be using a Linux desktop at work.
It may not be a choice you make but one that is made for you by managers concerned at cost and security issues associated with the Microsoft Windows platform.
Speakers from IBM, Hewlett-Packard and Oracle told the Novell-sponsored forum on Linux in Auckland last week that they experiencing growing interest in Linux, not just on servers but at the desktop level.
Novell this year bought the German company Suse, the Mercedes of Linux distributions, making it a significant player in the Linux world.
Markus Rex, Novell vice-president and general manager of Suse Linux, said the tipping point for Linux had been reached.
"We see a tremendous amount of customer interest in the desktop and see how wrong the analysts are," Rex said.
"The analysts said a year ago it will be very slow, very creeping, and the real tipping point could be in 2005, more probably 2006. They were just plain wrong.
"They were wrong in their projected growth rates on the desktop usage. They were wrong in the amount of interest. They were wrong in the size of projects."
Rex said what turned the swing to mass adoption was the decision of the city of Munich to switch 40,000 desktops and hundreds of servers from Windows to Linux.
Microsoft chief Steve Ballmer flew in to convince the council of the error of its ways, and the project was held up for seven weeks this year because of concerns about new European Union patent laws.
"They used the time to do an additional study about the risk of intellectual property infringement and came out with a finding the risk was not greater with open-source software than any proprietary software - why should it be?" Rex said.
In an attempt to counter further attempts by Microsoft or its surrogates to raise fear, uncertainty or doubt about Linux, Novell last week announced it would use its portfolio of software patents to protect its open-source software products against lawsuits.
"The Munich case was so highly visible to the market, people said, 'If that city can do it, with all the politics and the scrutiny if anything goes wrong, why don't I start looking at it?' " Rex said.
"We have had inquiries from companies with tens of thousands of desktops about switching over."
Suse, which is now a 500-person organisation, has run all its operations on Linux since 1993. Novell is now switching all its 6000 employees worldwide to Linux desktops running Open Office applications.
"Microsoft regards Linux as a dire threat to its business. In its last SEC filing it pointed it out as its number one risk, so it is getting very creative in making sure people don't go off Windows," Rex said. "I am not sad Microsoft is vulnerable. It is up to us to attack them, and we intend to do so."
Suse, begun by four Nuremberg students in 1992, is the oldest Linux company.
Rex, an early customer, joined the management team in 1999, just before technology giants IBM, Oracle and SAP threw their weight behind Linux and gave others confidence to adopt it on the server.
Microsoft's decision to change its licensing model in an attempt to lock in revenue was the spur many firms needed to shift some servers to Linux. "Thank you Redmond," said Rex, referring to Microsoft's HQ in Washington State.
Linux distributions typically choose extra programs and tools to add on to the core Linux kernel.
A few companies, like Suse and Red Hat, have also built up the certification, training and support infrastructure required by corporations who want someone there to fix their software should it break.
Rex said acquisition by Novell had given Suse global reach and a stronger support capability, as well as reinvigorating Novell, giving it a third product set to sell alongside its Netware products and identity management solutions.
He said Microsoft's dominance of the PC operating system and desktop markets was increasingly seen as a bad thing, particularly by Asian Governments who see themselves paying a large part of their IT budget to a United States-based company.
"Competition forces innovation, or you will lose customers. Unless there is something out there to challenge you, you are not giving your best to make sure you are ahead of the game. This is clearly needed on the desktop."
Trickle of interest in Linux starts to become a corporate flood
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