It will be three years before visitor numbers get near pre-pandemic levels, Tourism Export Council NZ says.
The council has released updated assumptions and arrivals taking into account the return of Australian visitors from April 13 and from visa waiver countries such as the United States, Canada, Britain, Europe and Singapore from May 2.
Before the pandemic, the international tourism market earned more than $17 billion in foreign exchange.
Forecasts show visitors from China won't be back until next year or when the Chinese government lifts its outbound travel restrictions.
Export council chief executive Lynda Keene said that as with any forecast, there was an element of crystal ball gazing based on information on 30 key visitor markets.
During the past six weeks the council has had more reports from its member inbound tourism operators' overseas partners and its global counterparts from Australia, Britain, Europe, Ireland, South Africa and Canada.
Most of these countries were expecting a 50 per cent to 60 per cent rebound of international visitors over the next 12 months.
''In our new forecasts we've factored in the potential impact of the Russia-Ukraine war and travel to/around Europe as best we can,'' said Keene.
''There is a view that United States visitors who may normally travel to Europe for their summer travels, may consider a 'winter' holiday and come to NZ or Australia. This would be good if this happened."
Based on the council's assumptions, for the year ending May 2025 it is predicted total annual arrivals will be back to 95.5 per cent (3,231,198 visitors) of total pre-Covid annual arrivals (3.9 million).
There will be a slower return of visitors in the first 12 months and bookings will then gather momentum.
Current inbound bookings for 2023-2024 look positive.
Any recovery over the next 12 months will be highly dependent on the number of airlines and cruise ships that put New Zealand on their future schedules. Australia and US markets could recover quicker than forecast. The China market might take longer than forecast dependent on airline connectivity.
• By year end May 2023 annual number of arrivals 1,901,600 - 64.6 per cent of pre-Covid (driven by US and Australia).
• By 2024 annual arrivals 2,382,845 - 84.3 per cent.
• By 2025 arrivals 2,820,009 - 95.5 per cent.
Those travelling during the next 12 months will be those who are not risk adverse and will be factoring in potential disruption if they get Covid while travelling.
Australia
The council reports some good indicators coming out suggest group tours might start to come through for the last quarter of the year. Independent traveller bookings are looking good for winter, spring and summer. There could be a small risk that, like Kiwis, Australians may head to long-haul destinations, but at the moment, bookings for this country are encouraging. Conversely, if older Australians are worried about travelling to Europe, they will travel short haul to NZ for a holiday.
Britain
A good level of bookings are in place after a slow start. The market had been quiet but more bookings are rolling in since the confirmed date for visitors to return. Strong rebound from visiting friends and relatives (VFR) market. Group tour bookings just starting to come through.
North America
Strong bookings are coming from the US and Canada since border relaxation dates were announced. This is for high net worth independent travellers and group tours.
"it's looking like the US might be the star performer for the 2022-23 season,'' said Keene.
A few bookings were coming through from South America.
Europe
Bookings from southern Europe and the Netherlands markets are beginning to come through - more free independent travellers bookings than group tours at this stage. Flight availability, with the number of seats and pricing could be a barrier to a positive rebound.
A longer length of stay compared to pre-Covid number of days in New Zealand is a new trend emerging. The German market is still light on group tour bookings. More group tours have been booked in Australia because of confidence in the Australian government's commitment to keep its borders open. Bookings from the German youth market (18-35-year-olds) are looking strong for the 2022-23 season.
"The war in Russia and Ukraine and flights are also impacting travel patterns. Any further unrest in Europe could throw a spanner in the works."
Asia
Bookings are quiet from Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Hong Kong but some pick-up is expected for November travel. Singapore will be the first market to start to come back. The India market inquiry is low because of visitor visa requirements and the date of return from the NZ government is not finalised yet.
China
Pre-Covid, China was New Zealand's second largest visitor market by spend behind Australia. The market is quiet compared to pre-Covid booking trends at this time of year. Inbound tour operators confirm there is a positive level of inquiry. However, until the Chinese government removes the outbound travel ban for its citizens, no travel to New Zealand will materialise. It's anticipated a good level of bookings will come through in the first quarter of next year. Airline connectivity between Guangzhou, Shanghai and Beijing to Auckland and Christchurch will drive the return of Chinese visitors, the council report says, but this market may take some time to return.