Tourism crawls back towards pre-pandemic levels, stronger recovery in Kiwis taking holidays overseas

International tourism continues its slow recovery, with data out today showing the number of visitors in September was just under 87% of numbers for the same month in 2019.

Stats NZ says overseas visitor arrivals were 3.23 million in the September 2024 year, an increase of 463,000 from the September 2023 year but still well below annual arrivals of 3.9 million in 2019.

The biggest changes in the 12 months to September this year were in arrivals from China (up 140,000 to 246,000), Australia (up 73,000 to 1.33 million) and the United States (up 55,000 to 359,000).

But the September month to month comparison (2024-2023) shows only a slight recovery, continuing the trend for the year in what was once New Zealand’s biggest export earner. Overseas visitor arrivals were 226,900 in September 2024, an increase of just 2000 from September last year.

Air capacity isn't at pre-pandemic levels and neither are tourist numbers. Photo / 123rf

Some other countries, including Australia have had a stronger recovery.

Of New Zealand’s five largest sources of overseas visitor arrivals, only India has been above pre-pandemic levels in most months over the last year.

The visitor mix is close to what it was before the pandemic.

Of the 226,900 overseas visitor arrivals in September this year:

• 54% were from Australia (compared with 51% in September 2019)
• 9% were from China (11%)
• 6% were from the US (6%)
• 3% were from the United Kingdom (3%)
• 3% were from India (2%).

While a Tourism Industry Aotearoa summit last week heard spending is on a par with pre-pandemic levels (helped by strong inflation), there is concern within the tourism sector that high costs and Government charges are threatening a steeper recovery in numbers.

Air capacity is not yet at pre-pandemic levels as airlines fly less risky and more profitable routes between larger populations.

Last month the International Visitor Levy for those coming from countries other than Australia and the Pacific nearly trebled to $100.

ASB economists say tourism arrivals are “stuck” at current levels.

They rose 1% in seasonally-adjusted terms in September to be up about 4% over the third quarter.

“Annual visitor numbers remain stuck. Australia comprises just over 40% of international arrivals, with arrivals from China well below pre-Covid peaks and considerably below US arrivals.

“In our view, October increases in the NZ international visitor levy (to $100 from $35) are unlikely to significantly impact visitor numbers,” ASB said.

Meanwhile, the number of Kiwis taking trips overseas in September reached 261,000, 93% of pre-pandemic levels.

Stats NZ uses NZ-resident traveller arrivals (returns) as its measurement of those taking short term trips.

This shows the most popular destinations with Fiji being the biggest climber compared to before the pandemic:

• 39% were from Australia (compared with 40% in September 2019)
• 9% were from Fiji (7%)
• 6% were from the US (8%)
• 6% were from the UK (6%).

Grant Bradley has been working at the Herald since 1993. He is the Business Herald’s deputy editor and covers aviation and tourism.