Government ministers are peddling a range of "incorrect or misleading" arguments about the impact of its ban on issuing new licences for offshore oil and gas exploration, says leading oil and gas sector analyst John Kidd in a note for clients of investment advisory house Woodward Partners.
Released on the same day as Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern held meetings with oil and gas industry representatives in the energy-rich Taranaki province, Kidd homes in on what he says is inadequate understanding of the role of the Methanex methanol production plants north of New Plymouth, the impact of major changes in demand to the economics of oil and gas field development, and misunderstandings about the likelihood of further offshore discoveries in areas where permits already exist.
Ardern issued a statement saying the government "hears loud and clear that the Taranaki region and the energy sector need certainty, stability and encouragement as we move towards a clean energy future" and supported proposals from the region to hold a 'Just Transitions Summit' in coming months as part of a collaborative approach.
However, Kidd said he expected a dump of government papers on June 1 that would show "little due diligence and preparatory analysis was undertaken before the decision", announced on April 12, to end the granting of any future offshore oil and gas exploration licences.
BusinessDesk has requested Cabinet papers relating to the decision, with Energy Minister Megan Woods's seeking a one month extension to June 18, while Climate Change Minister James Shaw has responded to an Official Information Request on analysis from the Ministry for the Environment with a two sentence answer saying he had received a verbal briefing from officials.